Canadiens vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [3/11/2026]

The Ottawa Senators will face the Montreal Canadiens in NHL action at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Senators as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Senators game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Canadiens and Senators 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Senators a 59% chance of beating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.

Canadiens vs. Senators odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Senators
Puck Line	+1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+125)
Moneyline	+176	-190
Total	o6.5 (-102)	u6.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Senators picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Canadiens +1.5	-144
Moneyline	Canadiens	+176
Total	Under 6.5	-108

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Canadiens vs. Senators player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Senators?

According to our model, Brady Tkachuk is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Senators.

Our projections give Tkachuk a 36.1% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 7.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nick Suzuki	31.1%
Ivan Demidov	27.5%
Alex Newhook	26.2%
Juraj Slafkovsky	23.9%
Oliver Kapanen	20.9%

Ottawa Senators

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	36.1%
Tim Stutzle	33.7%
Dylan Cozens	28.0%
Drake Batherson	27.5%
Shane Pinto	26.6%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Nick Suzuki	5.7%
Ivan Demidov	5.3%
Alex Newhook	5.0%
Juraj Slafkovsky	4.4%
Zachary Bolduc	3.4%

Ottawa Senators

Player	First Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	7.0%
Tim Stutzle	6.8%
Dylan Cozens	5.3%
Shane Pinto	4.9%
Drake Batherson	4.5%

Habs vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's game between the Senators and Canadiens at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators
• Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Conclusion

We predict the Senators, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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