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Canadiens vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Senators NHL game on March 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Canadiens
3
2
Mar 11, 11:30PM Canadian Tire Centre
Senators
Mar 11, 11:30PM Canadian Tire Centre
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 1 3
Senators
2 0 0 2
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
CanadiensMTL
Win %
100%
0%
SenatorsOTT
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 1 3
Senators
2 0 0 2
P3 19:57 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 19:55 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 19:38 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 18:58 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 18:19 Shot missed by Noah Dobson
P3 18:03 Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 17:37 Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 16:35 Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 16:17 Jordan Spence shot blocked by Lane Hutson
P3 15:45 Artem Zub shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
P3 15:06 Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:27 Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 12:50 Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 12:40 Goal scored by Ivan Demidov assisted by Alex Newhook and Kaiden Guhle
P3 12:16 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 11:27 Ridly Greig shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 10:25 Mike Matheson shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 10:10 Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 07:35 Shot on goal by Warren Foegele saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 06:30 Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 19:55
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 19:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 18:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 18:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Noah Dobson
P3 18:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 17:37
SHOT
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 16:57
Ridly Greig credited with hit on Noah Dobson in offensive zone
P3 16:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 16:17
SHOT
Jordan Spence shot blocked by Lane Hutson
P3 15:53
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P3 15:45
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
P3 15:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 14:11
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
P3 13:30
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
P3 13:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 13:16
Stoppage - Icing
P3 13:07
Jake Evans won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P3 12:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 12:40
GOAL
Goal scored by Ivan Demidov assisted by Alex Newhook and Kaiden Guhle
3-2
P3 12:16
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 11:55
Tim Stutzle credited with hit on Juraj Slafkovský in neutral zone
P3 11:27
SHOT
Ridly Greig shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 11:10
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 10:36
Stoppage - Icing
P3 10:25
SHOT
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 10:14
Noah Dobson won faceoff against Senators in offensive zone
P3 10:14
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 10:10
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 07:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Warren Foegele saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 06:30
SHOT
Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 05:55
SHOT
Shot missed by Noah Dobson
P3 05:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 04:59
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
P3 04:59
Penalty to Drake Batherson 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Ivan Demidov)
P3 04:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 04:05
Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P3 03:21
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
P3 02:17
SHOT
Shot missed by Lars Eller
P3 02:00
Stoppage - Icing
P3 01:34
Jake Evans won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P3 01:21
Jake Evans won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
P3 01:21
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 00:54
SHOT
Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
P3 00:42
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
P3 00:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:52
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
P2 19:50
SHOT
Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P2 19:09
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 18:43
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
P2 18:32
SHOT
Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
P2 17:56
Jake Evans won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
P2 17:39
SHOT
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P2 17:29
Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 17:23
SHOT
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P2 17:07
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
P2 17:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Jacob Fowler
P2 16:09
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P2 15:59
SHOT
Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
P2 15:57
Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 15:44
SHOT
Shot missed by Canadiens
P2 15:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 14:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 12:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Ridly Greig
P2 12:57
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
P2 12:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Senators saved by Jacob Fowler
P2 12:33
Jake Evans won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P2 12:22
SHOT
Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P2 10:31
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
P2 09:30
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
P2 09:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jacob Fowler
P2 09:11
SHOT
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Noah Dobson
P2 07:47
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Jacob Fowler
P2 06:40
Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 05:50
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P2 05:36
SHOT
Power play - Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by teammate
P2 05:09
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jacob Fowler
P2 05:07
Shorthanded - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
P2 05:02
Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
P2 05:02
Penalty to Lane Hutson 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Michael Amadio)
P2 04:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 03:22
SHOT
Lars Eller shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P2 02:33
SHOT
Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P2 02:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 01:20
SHOT
Claude Giroux shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
P2 01:09
SHOT
Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P2 00:17
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
P2 00:00
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:33
SHOT
Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
P1 19:30
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 18:49
Lars Eller won faceoff against Jake Evans in defensive zone
P1 18:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kirby Dach saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 18:41
Jake Evans won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P1 18:33
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P1 18:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Fabian Zetterlund saved by Jacob Fowler
P1 17:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 17:25
SHOT
Shot missed by Noah Dobson
P1 17:08
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 16:57
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
P1 16:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Jacob Fowler
P1 16:42
Canadiens won faceoff against Drake Batherson in neutral zone
P1 16:27
Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
P1 16:27
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 16:25
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jacob Fowler
P1 16:09
Penalty to Josh Anderson 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Nikolas Matinpalo)
P1 15:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Warren Foegele
P1 14:54
Takeaway by Nick Cousins in offensive zone
P1 14:33
Takeaway by Zachary Bolduc in defensive zone
P1 13:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P1 12:38
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P1 10:52
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Jacob Fowler
P1 10:23
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
P1 10:23
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 09:22
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jayden Struble saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 09:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jayden Struble saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 08:59
Stoppage - Icing
P1 08:17
Power play - Giveaway by Fabian Zetterlund in offensive zone
P1 08:14
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Warren Foegele
P1 07:30
SHOT
Shorthanded - Phillip Danault shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P1 06:19
Stoppage - TV timeout
P1 06:19
Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P1 05:53
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
P1 04:48
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 03:49
Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
P1 03:18
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
P1 03:18
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 02:59
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 02:46
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Josh Anderson
P1 02:31
Phillip Danault credited with hit on Jordan Spence in offensive zone
P1 02:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 01:44
Giveaway by Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
P1 01:16
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Kirby Dach in neutral zone
P1 01:13
Shorthanded - Thomas Chabot credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P1 00:51
Power play - Giveaway by Kirby Dach in offensive zone
P1 00:30
Penalty to Dylan Cozens 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Jacob Fowler)
P1 00:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Jacob Fowler
P1 00:20
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
P1 00:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Jacob Fowler
P1 00:00
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Senators
23Shots on Goal34
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
31Hits33
24Shots Blocked11
24Giveaways9
CanadiensMTL
SenatorsOTT
23Shots on Goal34
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
31Hits33
24Shots Blocked11
24Giveaways9

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Canadiens vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Senators
  • Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens +176, Senators -190

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 41%
  • Senators: 59%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 41%, while the Senators have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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