Canadiens vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Senators NHL game on March 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Hoops season sale: $30 off Dimers Pro passes. Limited time only.
FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Canadiens
3
2
Canadian Tire Centre
Senators
Canadian Tire Centre
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 1 3
Senators
2 0 0 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Canadiens
    100%
  • Senators
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 1 3
Senators
2 0 0 2
P3 19:57 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 19:55 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 19:38 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 18:58 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 18:19 Shot missed by Noah Dobson
P3 18:03 Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 17:37 Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 16:35 Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 16:17 Jordan Spence shot blocked by Lane Hutson
P3 15:45 Artem Zub shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
P3 15:06 Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:27 Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 12:50 Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 12:40 Goal scored by Ivan Demidov assisted by Alex Newhook and Kaiden Guhle
P3 12:16 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 11:27 Ridly Greig shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 10:25 Mike Matheson shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 10:10 Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 07:35 Shot on goal by Warren Foegele saved by Jacob Fowler
P3 06:30 Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  3. P3 19:55
    SHOT
    Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
  4. P3 19:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
  5. P3 18:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jacob Fowler
  6. P3 18:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Dobson
  7. P3 18:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  8. P3 17:37
    SHOT
    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  9. P3 16:57
    Ridly Greig credited with hit on Noah Dobson in offensive zone
  10. P3 16:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Jacob Fowler
  11. P3 16:17
    SHOT
    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  12. P3 15:53
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  13. P3 15:45
    SHOT
    Artem Zub shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
  14. P3 15:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Linus Ullmark
  15. P3 14:11
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
  16. P3 13:30
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  17. P3 13:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Jacob Fowler
  18. P3 13:16
    Stoppage - Icing
  19. P3 13:07
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  20. P3 12:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kirby Dach
  21. P3 12:40
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Ivan Demidov assisted by Alex Newhook and Kaiden Guhle
    3-2
  22. P3 12:16
    SHOT
    Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  23. P3 11:55
    Tim Stutzle credited with hit on Juraj Slafkovský in neutral zone
  24. P3 11:27
    SHOT
    Ridly Greig shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  25. P3 11:10
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  26. P3 10:36
    Stoppage - Icing
  27. P3 10:25
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Michael Amadio
  28. P3 10:14
    Noah Dobson won faceoff against Senators in offensive zone
  29. P3 10:14
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  30. P3 10:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Linus Ullmark
  31. P3 07:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Warren Foegele saved by Jacob Fowler
  32. P3 06:30
    SHOT
    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  33. P3 05:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Dobson
  34. P3 05:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Jacob Fowler
  35. P3 04:59
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  36. P3 04:59
    Penalty to Drake Batherson 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Ivan Demidov)
  37. P3 04:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Jacob Fowler
  38. P3 04:05
    Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  39. P3 03:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Artem Zub
  40. P3 02:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lars Eller
  41. P3 02:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  42. P3 01:34
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  43. P3 01:21
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  44. P3 01:21
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  45. P3 00:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  46. P3 00:42
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  47. P3 00:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Linus Ullmark
  48. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  49. P2 19:52
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
  50. P2 19:50
    SHOT
    Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  51. P2 19:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Linus Ullmark
  52. P2 18:43
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
  53. P2 18:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
  54. P2 17:56
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  55. P2 17:39
    SHOT
    Drake Batherson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  56. P2 17:29
    Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  57. P2 17:23
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Michael Amadio
  58. P2 17:07
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
  59. P2 17:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Jacob Fowler
  60. P2 16:09
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  61. P2 15:59
    SHOT
    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
  62. P2 15:57
    Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  63. P2 15:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Canadiens
  64. P2 15:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Linus Ullmark
  65. P2 14:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brendan Gallagher saved by Linus Ullmark
  66. P2 12:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ridly Greig
  67. P2 12:57
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  68. P2 12:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Senators saved by Jacob Fowler
  69. P2 12:33
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  70. P2 12:22
    SHOT
    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
  71. P2 10:31
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  72. P2 09:30
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
  73. P2 09:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jacob Fowler
  74. P2 09:11
    SHOT
    Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Noah Dobson
  75. P2 07:47
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Jacob Fowler
  76. P2 06:40
    Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  77. P2 05:50
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  78. P2 05:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by teammate
  79. P2 05:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jacob Fowler
  80. P2 05:07
    Shorthanded - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
  81. P2 05:02
    Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  82. P2 05:02
    Penalty to Lane Hutson 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Michael Amadio)
  83. P2 04:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Linus Ullmark
  84. P2 03:22
    SHOT
    Lars Eller shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  85. P2 02:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kirby Dach
  86. P2 02:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Linus Ullmark
  87. P2 01:20
    SHOT
    Claude Giroux shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
  88. P2 01:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Claude Giroux
  89. P2 00:17
    Giveaway by Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  90. P2 00:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  91. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  92. P1 19:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
  93. P1 19:30
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  94. P1 18:49
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Jake Evans in defensive zone
  95. P1 18:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirby Dach saved by Linus Ullmark
  96. P1 18:41
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  97. P1 18:33
    Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  98. P1 18:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Fabian Zetterlund saved by Jacob Fowler
  99. P1 17:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Linus Ullmark
  100. P1 17:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Dobson
  101. P1 17:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  102. P1 16:57
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
  103. P1 16:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Jacob Fowler
  104. P1 16:42
    Canadiens won faceoff against Drake Batherson in neutral zone
  105. P1 16:27
    Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  106. P1 16:27
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  107. P1 16:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jacob Fowler
  108. P1 16:09
    Penalty to Josh Anderson 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Nikolas Matinpalo)
  109. P1 15:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Warren Foegele
  110. P1 14:54
    Takeaway by Nick Cousins in offensive zone
  111. P1 14:33
    Takeaway by Zachary Bolduc in defensive zone
  112. P1 13:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Claude Giroux
  113. P1 12:38
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  114. P1 10:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Jacob Fowler
  115. P1 10:23
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  116. P1 10:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  117. P1 09:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jayden Struble saved by Linus Ullmark
  118. P1 09:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jayden Struble saved by Linus Ullmark
  119. P1 08:59
    Stoppage - Icing
  120. P1 08:17
    Power play - Giveaway by Fabian Zetterlund in offensive zone
  121. P1 08:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Warren Foegele
  122. P1 07:30
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Phillip Danault shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
  123. P1 06:19
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  124. P1 06:19
    Canadiens won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  125. P1 05:53
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  126. P1 04:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Linus Ullmark
  127. P1 03:49
    Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
  128. P1 03:18
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
  129. P1 03:18
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  130. P1 02:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  131. P1 02:46
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Josh Anderson
  132. P1 02:31
    Phillip Danault credited with hit on Jordan Spence in offensive zone
  133. P1 02:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Linus Ullmark
  134. P1 01:44
    Giveaway by Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
  135. P1 01:16
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Kirby Dach in neutral zone
  136. P1 01:13
    Shorthanded - Thomas Chabot credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  137. P1 00:51
    Power play - Giveaway by Kirby Dach in offensive zone
  138. P1 00:30
    Penalty to Dylan Cozens 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Jacob Fowler)
  139. P1 00:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Jacob Fowler
  140. P1 00:20
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  141. P1 00:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Jacob Fowler
  142. P1 00:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Senators
23Shots on Goal34
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
31Hits33
24 Shots Blocked 11
24Giveaways9
CanadiensMTL
SenatorsOTT
23Shots on Goal34
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
31Hits33
24 Shots Blocked 11
24Giveaways9

Canadiens vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Senators
  • Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens +176, Senators -190

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 41%
  • Senators: 59%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 41%, while the Senators have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.