Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction: Buffalo favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [5/6/2026]

The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are scheduled to meet in the NHL Playoffs at KeyBank Center on Wednesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Sabres as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Sabres game.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Sabres prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Canadiens and Sabres, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Sabres a 56% chance of beating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 56% chance of going over.

Canadiens vs. Sabres odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Sabres
Puck Line	+1.5 (-215)	-1.5 (+180)
Moneyline	+120	-140
Total	o5.5 (-122)	u5.5 (+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Sabres picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Sabres -1.5	+180
Moneyline	Canadiens	+120
Total	Over 5.5	-122

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Canadiens vs. Sabres player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Sabres?

According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Sabres.

Our projections give Thompson a 39.1% chance of scoring a goal at KeyBank Center, while the star is a 7.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	35.8%
Nick Suzuki	30.3%
Ivan Demidov	27.4%
Alexandre Texier	24.7%
Juraj Slafkovsky	22.8%

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Tage Thompson	39.1%
Alex Tuch	35.2%
Josh Norris	26.6%
Jason Zucker	26.5%
Jack Quinn	24.8%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	7.5%
Nick Suzuki	6.0%
Ivan Demidov	4.7%
Alex Newhook	4.6%
Alexandre Texier	4.5%

Buffalo Sabres

Player	First Goal Probability
Tage Thompson	7.5%
Alex Tuch	6.8%
Jason Zucker	5.1%
Josh Norris	4.9%
Jack Quinn	4.3%

Habs vs. Sabres game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's game between the Sabres and Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres
• Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: KeyBank Center

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the NHL's postseason elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Canadiens and Sabres, made the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Sabres, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

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