...
...
Read Article
Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction: Buffalo favored to win Game 5 [2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are scheduled to meet in Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs at KeyBank Center on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Sabres a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Canadiens Game 5 matchup.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Canadiens vs. Sabres matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Sabres prediction: Who will win Game 5?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Canadiens and Sabres, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Sabres a 53% chance of beating the Canadiens in Game 5 of the series.
According to our model, the over/under total of six goals also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 5 odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +102 | -120 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Sabres picks and best bet for Game 5
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sabres | -120 |
| Total | Over 6 | -105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Canadiens vs. Sabres player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Sabres?
According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Sabres.
Our projections give Thompson a 41.2% chance of scoring a goal at KeyBank Center, while the star is an 8.6% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 35.4% |
| Alex Newhook | 29.7% |
| Nick Suzuki | 28.6% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 25.5% |
| Ivan Demidov | 25.3% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 41.2% |
| Alex Tuch | 33.5% |
| Zach Benson | 28.6% |
| Josh Norris | 26.5% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 21.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 7.4% |
| Alex Newhook | 5.9% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.8% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.5% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.3% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 8.6% |
| Alex Tuch | 6.3% |
| Josh Norris | 5.4% |
| Zach Benson | 5.1% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 4.4% |
Habs vs. Sabres Game 5 updates and essential details
Thursday's Game 5 between the Sabres and Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: KeyBank Center
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the NHL's postseason elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Canadiens and Sabres, reached the NHL Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Sabres, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Thursday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure