MLB player props today: Tuesday's best props include David Peterson [7/21/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Tuesday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 21, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of David Peterson, Tyler Mahle and Chase Burns.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Athletics vs. D-Backs and Orioles vs. Red Sox, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Tuesday, 7/21
Sourced from 50+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 21, ranked by probability.
David Peterson over 3.5 strikeouts (-162)
- Edge: 6.9%
- Probability: 68.7%
- Game: Tigers vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on CHI Cubs' David Peterson over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 68.7% gives this play an edge of 6.9% at -162 odds.
Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeouts (-168)
- Edge: 5.9%
- Probability: 68.6%
- Game: Giants vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)
Tyler Mahle’s strikeouts prop shows a 68.6% probability and an 5.9% edge at -168 odds, according to our model.
Chase Burns under 17.5 outs recorded (-124)
- Edge: 9.1%
- Probability: 64.5%
- Game: Reds vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)
The data highlights value on Chase Burns under 17.5 outs recorded, with simulations showing a 64.5% probability and a 9.1% edge at -124.
Kyle Bradish under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
- Edge: 7.5%
- Probability: 63.0%
- Game: Orioles vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET)
Our model finds value on Kyle Bradish under 5.5 strikeouts, with a 63.0% probability and an edge of 7.5% at -125 odds.
Justin Wrobleski under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 62.1%
- Game: Dodgers vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Justin Wrobleski under 5.5 strikeouts for LA Dodgers, showing an edge of 4.9% at -134 odds.
Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts (-132)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 60.6%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)
Drew Rasmussen’s strikeouts prop shows an edge of 3.7% at -132 odds, supported by a 60.6% probability according to our model.
Adrian Del Castillo to get a hit (-130)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 59.0%
- Game: Athletics vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Adrian Del Castillo to get a hit for Arizona, with a 59.0% probability and a 2.5% edge at -130 odds.
Tyler Mahle under 15.5 outs recorded (-108)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 58.1%
- Game: Giants vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)
The data shows value on Tyler Mahle under 15.5 outs recorded, supported by a 58.1% probability at -108 odds and an edge of 6.2%.
Andrés Giménez to get a hit (-124)
- Edge: 2.7%
- Probability: 58.0%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)
A 2.7% edge on the to get a hit line makes Andrés Giménez a value play in Rays vs. Blue Jays, supported by a 58.0% probability at -124 odds.
Framber Valdez over 4.5 strikeouts (-112)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 55.8%
- Game: Tigers vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET)
Simulations show value on Framber Valdez over 4.5 strikeouts here, with a 55.8% probability and 3.0% edge at -112 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Tuesday, July 21, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 5:37AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers vs. Cubs | David Peterson over 3.5 strikeouts | -162 @ FanDuel | 6.9% | 68.7% |
| Giants vs. Royals | Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeouts | -168 @ DraftKings | 5.9% | 68.6% |
| Reds vs. Mariners | Chase Burns under 17.5 outs recorded | -124 @ DraftKings | 7.5% | 63.0% |
| Orioles vs. Red Sox | Kyle Bradish under 5.5 strikeouts | -125 @ DraftKings | 7.5% | 63.0% |
| Dodgers vs. Phillies | Justin Wrobleski under 5.5 strikeouts | -134 @ DraftKings | 4.9% | 62.1% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts | -132 @ FanDuel | 3.7% | 60.6% |
| Athletics vs. D-Backs | Adrian Del Castillo to get a hit | -130 @ FanDuel | 2.5% | 59.0% |
| Giants vs. Royals | Tyler Mahle under 15.5 outs recorded | -108 @ FanDuel | 6.2% | 58.1% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Andrés Giménez to get a hit | -124 @ DraftKings | 2.7% | 58.0% |
| Tigers vs. Cubs | Framber Valdez over 4.5 strikeouts | -112 @ DraftKings | 3.0% | 55.8% |
Conclusion
For July 21, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as David Peterson, Tyler Mahle and Chase Burns. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
