MLB player props today: Sunday's best props include Payton Tolle [6/21/2026]

Payton Tolle under 6.5 strikeouts (-154)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 69.4%
• Game: Red Sox vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET)

Our model has found value on Boston's Payton Tolle under 6.5 strikeouts. A probability of 69.4% gives this play an edge of 8.7% at -154 odds.

Slade Cecconi over 3.5 strikeouts (-155)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 68.1%
• Game: Guardians vs. Astros (2:10PM ET)

Slade Cecconi’s strikeouts prop shows a 68.1% probability and an 7.3% edge at -155 odds, according to our model.

Emmet Sheehan under 6.5 strikeouts (-128)

• Edge: 9.7%
• Probability: 65.9%
• Game: Orioles vs. Dodgers (4:10PM ET)

The data highlights value on Emmet Sheehan under 6.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 65.9% probability and a 9.7% edge at -128.

Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts (-123)

• Edge: 9.7%
• Probability: 64.8%
• Game: Angels vs. Athletics (4:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts, with a 64.8% probability and an edge of 9.7% at -123 odds.

Keider Montero over 3.5 strikeouts (-123)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 64.5%
• Game: White Sox vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Keider Montero over 3.5 strikeouts for Detroit, showing an edge of 9.3% at -123 odds.

Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-124)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 63.4%
• Game: Orioles vs. Dodgers (4:10PM ET)

Shohei Ohtani’s bases prop shows an edge of 8.0% at -124 odds, supported by a 63.4% probability according to our model.

Dustin May under 5.5 strikeouts (-148)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 62.6%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Dustin May under 5.5 strikeouts for St. Louis, with a 62.6% probability and a 3.0% edge at -148 odds.

Chase Burns under 16.5 outs recorded (-131)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 61.4%
• Game: Reds vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET)

The data shows value on Chase Burns under 16.5 outs recorded, supported by a 61.4% probability at -131 odds and an edge of 4.7%.

Joey Bart over 0.5 bases (-120)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 60.5%
• Game: Brewers vs. Braves (1:35PM ET)

A 5.8% edge on the over 16.5 bases line makes Joey Bart a value play in Brewers vs. Braves, supported by a 60.5% probability at -120 odds.

Joey Bart to get a hit (-124)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 60.5%
• Game: Brewers vs. Braves (1:35PM ET)

Simulations show value on Joey Bart to get a hit here, with a 60.5% probability and 5.1% edge at -124 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Sunday, June 21, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:26AM ET:

Conclusion

For June 21, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Payton Tolle, Slade Cecconi and Emmet Sheehan. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.