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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +950 pick for Thursday [4/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, April 16, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which highlight the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for April 16, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +950.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 21.8% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 21.4% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 20.0% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 19.8% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 19.2% |
| Christian Walker (Astros) | 18.1% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 17.5% |
| Isaac Paredes (Astros) | 17.4% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 17.0% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 16.7% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.8% chance to go deep, followed by Yordan Alvarez (21.4%) and Shea Langeliers (20.0%).
Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep. features in today's home run predictions on Thursday, April 16, 2026.
Thursday's home run picks [4/16/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Riley Greene (Tigers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 13.2%
- Odds: +950
- Edge: 3.6%
- Game: Royals vs. Tigers (1:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Kris Bubic
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Detroit slugger Riley Greene rates as a value play at +950 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.6% edge.
With Kris Bubic on the mound for the Royals, the data supports Greene as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 16, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Yordan Alvarez and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Riley Greene who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.6% edge at +950 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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