Jun 23, 2026
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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Monday has +800 odds [6/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, June 22, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, built to highlight the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for June 22, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +800.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 21.2% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.2% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 19.0% |
| Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox) | 18.3% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.7% |
| Willson Contreras (Red Sox) | 17.0% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 16.7% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 16.6% |
| Tyler O'Neill (Orioles) | 16.3% |
| Samuel Basallo (Orioles) | 16.2% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.2% chance to go deep, followed by Pete Alonso (19.2%) and Eugenio Suarez (19.0%).
Wilyer Abreu and Junior Caminero are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [6/22/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) to hit a home run
- Probability: 13.5%
- Odds: +800
- Edge: 2.3%
- Game: Yankees vs. Tigers (6:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Framber Valdez
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Jazz Chisholm Jr. rates as a value play at +800 with BetRivers, showing a 2.3% edge.
Set to face Framber Valdez in tonight's Yankees-Tigers matchup, the data supports Jr. as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For June 22, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso and Eugenio Suarez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jazz Chisholm Jr. who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.3% edge at +800 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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