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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Friday has +760 odds [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, May 1, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 1, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +760.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 24.1% |
| Ronald Acuna (Braves) | 22.7% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 22.6% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 22.1% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.5% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 19.7% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 19.6% |
| Drake Baldwin (Braves) | 19.3% |
| Fernando Tatis (Padres) | 18.9% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 18.4% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.1% chance to go yard, followed by Ronald Acuna (22.7%) and Matt Olson (22.6%).
Austin Riley and Shohei Ohtani are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [5/1/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 14.9%
- Odds: +760
- Edge: 3.3%
- Game: Dodgers vs. Cardinals (8:15 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Matthew Liberatore
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +760 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.3% edge.
With Matthew Liberatore on the mound for the Cardinals, the data supports Tucker as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 1, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kyle Tucker who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.3% edge at +760 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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