MLB Best Bets: Three "Sweet Spot" plays for Friday, May 1

MLB prop bet: Jorge Mateo (Braves) to get a hit (-166)

Matchup: Braves vs. Rockies (8:40pm ET)

For the first Sweet Spot play of the day, we'll look at our hitter props, with bets in the "to get a hit" market returning a favorable 10.9% ROI across 30 bets in this edge range.

Mateo's 69.1% probability to pick up a knock against the Rockies would be fair at -225 odds, meaning while this play comes with some juice, it's still a much better price than it should be.

The Braves SS plays sparingly, often in pinch-hit situations or in the bottom of the order, but he's slashing .267/.313/.400 through 30 AB so far this season. If he starts again, even at the bottom of the order, he's got chances for extra at-bats tonight. Rockies starter Jose Quintana projects for 8.27 hits and 4.25 ER allowed, the most of any pitcher on the slate.

MLB prop bet: J.T. Ginn (A's) over 3.5 strikeouts (-130)

Matchup: Guardians vs. A's (9:40pm ET)

Next, we'll move to pitcher props with our highest ROI market featured today, strikeouts.

The A's will send RHP J.T. Ginn to the mound vs. the Guardians as we look for him to cash this prop for the third time this season.

The A's hurler get s a59.4% probability to clear 3,5 Ks, as well as a projection of 4.5 from our model, with pitcher strikeout props returning a 17.2% ROI so far this year.

Ginn's chase and whiff rates are around league average, but it doesn't always translate to punchouts as his overall K rate is in the 29th percentile among qualified starters. Tonight, he'll get a Guardians lineup that hits just .219 vs. right-handers, with 189 strikeouts (ranked 13th).

He primarily throws a sinker, especially against right-handed hitters, a pitch the Guardians lineup has not hit well this season.

MLB prop bet: Brady Singer (Reds) under 16.5 outs recorded (+106)

Matchup: Reds vs. Pirates (6:45pm ET)

We'll close out today's look at Sweet Spots with Brady Singer vs. the Pirates.

This market has returned the lowest ROI out of the featured bets in this article; however, it's increased nearly 4% since Wednesday, up to 9.7% on the season following a 3-0 sweep of props in the market, including a plus-money win on Tarik Skubal.

Singer gets a 54.8% probability to go under 16.5 outs (or under 5.2 innings) on Friday night. Singer has gone under in 4 of 6 starts so far this season, twice failing to reach the 5th inning. His projection of 14.9 outs recorded suggests he'll have trouble doing so again.

He has little swing-and-miss capability, gives up a lot of hard-hit balls and his opponent xBA is in the bottom 11th-percentile of MLB. If the Pirates can get to Singer early, they could chase him from the game

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