MLB Best Bets: Three "Sweet Spot" plays for Wednesday's night slate feature Tarik Skubal, Astros

MLB prop bet: Tarik Skubal over 18.5 outs recorded (+134)

Matchup: Tigers vs. Braves (7:15pm ET)

The first bet we'll look at is on Dimers' top-projected pitcher on Wednesday night, the Tigers' Tarik Skubal.

Skubal leads our MLB Pitcher Projections with the most strikeouts and fewest earned runs, aligning well with his 48.6% probability to pitch into the 7th inning vs. the Braves.

It's under 50%, but odds of +134 give us a big edge of 5.8%, as fair odds would be just +105.

18.5 outs is one out into the seventh inning or 6.1 IP. Through 5 starts this year, Skubal has cleared this twice with 7.0 IP and 6.2 IP, while going just under in his past two with 6.0 innings (18 outs) on the dot.

He's got a formidable matchup with a Braves team boasting the second-best batting average vs. righthanders, but Skubal knows how to handle a loaded lineup and gets great value backed by a positive return through the first month.

Outs recorded props have returned a 5.9% ROI this season across just under 100 total bets around a 5% edge.

MLB prop bet: Mark Vientos to get an RBI (+221)

Matchup: Mets vs. Nationals (7:10pm ET)

We move to the NL East matchup between the Mets and Nationals with one of our most profitable markets to date, RBIs.

Mark Vientos gets a 33.5% probability to drive in a run for his 8th RBI of the year and at odds of +221, the books imply only a 31.2% probability, giving us the 2.3% edge you see below.

That may not seem like much of a difference, but that edge range is precisely where our RBI props are returning such a strong profit at 21.8% ROI over 44 bets. Consider that hitting 1 out of every 3 props at these odds would still return a profit over time.

Vientos gets one of the best matchups in baseball against the Nationals, who are tied with the Astros for the most runs allowed this season, with a bullpen that's given up 24 home runs so far, another market where we find an edge on Vientos tonight.

MLB bet: Astros win (+113)

Matchup: Astros vs. Orioles (6:40pm ET)

We round out our MLB Sweet Spots with a look at our most profitable game line market, Moneylines, which have returned a 40.9% ROI over 31 bets so far this season, built on the back of underdog upsets.

Houston has the second-worst record in baseball with just 11 wins so far this season, despite having the 1st and 8th ranked players in OPS so far, Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker. Their shaky bullpen gives up more home runs than any team with the worst ERA in MLB.

Tonight, they have a chance to put up enough damage on the board before the bullpen can give it away, facing Orioles starter Chris Bassitt, pitching to a 6.75 ERA through 5 starts.

All 3 of his HR so far have come off lefties, like the Astros' best bats of Walker and Alvarez.

This Sweet spot hinges on getting these best odds at Novig as we are right at a 2% edge which is the threshold for a recommended bet, however, a 48.9% probability means they're at fair odds or better from +105 or longer.

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