Missouri State vs. Arkansas State prediction: Why Arkansas State is favored to win first ever Xbox Bowl [2025]

Arkansas State and Missouri State will lock horns in the 2025 Xbox Bowl at Ford Center at The Star on Thursday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced college football model gives Arkansas State a slight edge with a 51% win probability over Missouri State.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's Missouri State vs. Arkansas State matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Xbox Bowl prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Missouri State vs. Arkansas State 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Arkansas State a 51% chance of defeating Missouri State. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 28-27.

According to our model, Arkansas State (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 54.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Xbox Bowl odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: