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Missouri State vs. Arkansas State prediction: Why Arkansas State is favored to win first ever Xbox Bowl [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Missouri State vs Arkansas State predictions for college football Thursday.
Arkansas State will square off with Missouri State in the 2025 Xbox Bowl at Ford Center at The Star on Thursday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced college football model predicts Arkansas State as the most likely winner of the Missouri State vs. Arkansas State game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Xbox Bowl prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Missouri State vs. Arkansas State 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Arkansas State a 55% chance of beating Missouri State. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 29-27.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Missouri State and Arkansas State each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 55.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Xbox Bowl odds
We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Missouri State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -116 |
| Total | o55.5 (-112) | u55.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas State -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Arkansas State | -116 |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -108 |
According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Arkansas State to win.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's college football matchup between Arkansas State and Missouri State at Ford Center at The Star is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
- Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Ford Center at The Star
Conclusion
We predict Arkansas State, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat Missouri State on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Missouri State vs. Arkansas State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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