Heat vs. Trail Blazers prediction: Why Portland is favored to win Thursday's NBA game [1/22/2026]

The Portland Trail Blazers will square off with the Miami Heat in NBA action at Moda Center on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Trail Blazers as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Trail Blazers game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Trail Blazers lineup will feature stars like Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe and Jerami Grant, while the Heat will look to Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez and Bam Adebayo.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Heat vs. Blazers prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Trail Blazers 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Trail Blazers a 58% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Trail Blazers winning 118-115.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Heat and Trail Blazers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 235.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Heat vs. Trail Blazers odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Heat	Trail Blazers
Spread	+3.5 (-112)	-3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+136	-155
Total	o235.5 (-105)	u235.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Heat vs. Trail Blazers picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Trail Blazers -3.5	-105
Moneyline	Trail Blazers	-155
Total	Over 235.5	-105

According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Trail Blazers to win.

Heat vs. Trail Blazers player props

NBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the Heat vs. Trail Blazers matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

Norman Powell is expected to lead the Heat with 22 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Deni Avdija is projected to have 26 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists for the Trail Blazers.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Heat prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Norman Powell	22	4	3	3	36
Jaime Jaquez	20	7	6	1	43
Bam Adebayo	18	9	3	2	41
Andrew Wiggins	16	5	3	2	35
Pelle Larsson	12	4	4	1	27

Trail Blazers prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Trail Blazers:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Deni Avdija	26	7	7	2	52
Shaedon Sharpe	22	5	3	2	39
Jerami Grant	14	3	2	2	25
Toumani Camara	13	5	3	2	29
Donovan Clingan	12	12	2	1	35

Heat vs. Blazers game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Trail Blazers and Heat at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
• Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Trail Blazers, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Thursday, with Deni Avdija projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Trail Blazers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.