Matteo Arnaldi vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open

Matteo Arnaldi will square off with Andrey Rublev in the first round of the 2026 Australian Open on Sunday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Andrey Rublev as the most likely winner of the Arnaldi vs. Rublev match.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Arnaldi vs. Rublev prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Arnaldi-Rublev men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Rublev an 81% chance of beating Arnaldi in the 2026 Australian Open.

Additionally, Rublev has a 73% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Rublev (-5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 67% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Andrey Rublev odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Arnaldi vs. Rublev picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: