Manchester United vs. Liverpool prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/3/2026]

Manchester United will face Liverpool in Premier League action at Old Trafford on Sunday, starting at 10:30 AM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced Premier League model predicts Liverpool as the most likely winner of the Manchester United vs. Liverpool game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Premier League match between Manchester United and Liverpool, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 34.0% chance of Manchester United winning, a 43.1% chance for Liverpool, and a 22.9% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 64% chance of going over, according to our model.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool odds

We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Manchester United	Liverpool	Draw
+140	+180	+275

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-188	+150

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Liverpool	+180
Total Goals	Over 2.5	-188

According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liverpool to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
MUN 1-1 LIV	10%
MUN 1-2 LIV	8.8%
MUN 2-1 LIV	7.7%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 65.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 34.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's Premier League action between Manchester United and Liverpool at Old Trafford is scheduled to start in the United States at 10:30 AM ET.

• Who: Manchester United vs. Liverpool
• Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
• Time: 10:30 AM ET/7:30AM PT
• Venue: Old Trafford

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Manchester United has a 34.0% win probability on Sunday, Liverpool has a 43.1% win probability, and there is a 22.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.