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Kings vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/18/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Los Angeles Kings vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Los Angeles Kings in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Kings vs. Lightning game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Kings vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Kings and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 61% chance of beating the Kings.
According to our model, the 5.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Kings vs. Lightning odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Kings | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +170 | -200 |
| Total | o5.5 (-115) | u5.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Kings vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kings | +170 |
| Total | Under 5.5 | +100 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Kings to win.
Kings vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Kings vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Kings vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 38.8% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe | 28.6% |
| Kevin Fiala | 27.6% |
| Alex Laferriere | 22.6% |
| Quinton Byfield | 20.5% |
| Joel Armia | 20.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 38.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 34.5% |
| Brayden Point | 31.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 21.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala | 5.8% |
| Adrian Kempe | 5.7% |
| Alex Laferriere | 4.5% |
| Quinton Byfield | 4.3% |
| Anze Kopitar | 4.2% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.7% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.7% |
| Brayden Point | 6.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.8% |
Kings vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Lightning and Kings at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Kings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Kings on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Kings vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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