Kings vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/18/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will square off with the Los Angeles Kings in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Kings vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Kings vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Kings and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 61% chance of beating the Kings.

According to our model, the Kings (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Kings vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Kings	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-135)	-1.5 (+120)
Moneyline	+190	-220
Total	o5.5 (+100)	u5.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Kings vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Kings +1.5	-135
Moneyline	Kings	+190
Total	Over 5.5	+100

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Kings to win.

Kings vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Kings vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Kings vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 41.8% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Los Angeles Kings

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Adrian Kempe	28.7%
Kevin Fiala	26.8%
Alex Laferriere	23.0%
Quinton Byfield	20.2%
Joel Armia	20.0%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	41.8%
Nikita Kucherov	40.9%
Brayden Point	34.3%
Anthony Cirelli	24.4%
Nick Paul	18.1%

First goal scorer predictions

Los Angeles Kings

Player	First Goal Probability
Adrian Kempe	5.7%
Kevin Fiala	4.9%
Alex Laferriere	4.1%
Joel Armia	4.0%
Quinton Byfield	4.0%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.3%
Nikita Kucherov	8.9%
Brayden Point	7.2%
Anthony Cirelli	5.2%
Nick Paul	3.4%

Kings vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Lightning and Kings at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Kings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Kings on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Kings vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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