Chargers vs. Jaguars prediction: Chargers favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers are scheduled to meet in Week 11 of the NFL season at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Chargers as the most likely winner of the Chargers vs. Jaguars game.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Chargers vs. Jaguars prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Chargers-Jaguars predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chargers and Jaguars 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Chargers a 64% chance of beating the Jaguars in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chargers winning 23-19.

According to our model, the Chargers (-3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

Chargers vs. Jaguars odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chargers	Jaguars
Spread	-3 (+100)	+3 (-115)
Moneyline	-146	+130
Total	o43.5 (-104)	u43.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chargers vs. Jaguars picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chargers -3	+100
Moneyline	Chargers	-146
Total	Over 43.5	-104

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chargers -3 at the spread.

Chargers vs. Jaguars TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Jaguars?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Kimani Vidal is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chargers vs. Jaguars.

Our projections give Vidal a 46.5% chance of getting in for six at EverBank Stadium, while the running back is an 11.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Kimani Vidal (RB)	46.5%
Ladd McConkey (WR)	35.7%
Quentin Johnston (WR)	33.3%
Keenan Allen (WR)	31.4%
Oronde Gadsden (TE)	30.2%

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	43.0%
Parker Washington (WR)	28.2%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	25.7%
Bhayshul Tuten (RB)	24.2%
Trevor Lawrence (QB)	20.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	First TD Probability
Kimani Vidal (RB)	11.5%
Ladd McConkey (WR)	8.1%
Quentin Johnston (WR)	7.4%
Keenan Allen (WR)	6.9%
Oronde Gadsden (TE)	6.6%

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	First TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	11.1%
Parker Washington (WR)	6.6%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	5.9%
Bhayshul Tuten (RB)	5.5%
Trevor Lawrence (QB)	4.6%

Chargers vs Jaguars player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Jaguars. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 260 passing yards. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is expected to throw for 220 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Justin Herbert (LAC)	260
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)	220

Chargers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kimani Vidal	74
Justin Herbert	24
Amar Johnson	6

Jaguars rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Travis Etienne	64
Trevor Lawrence	20
Bhayshul Tuten	19

Chargers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Ladd McConkey	67
Oronde Gadsden	53
Quentin Johnston	46
Keenan Allen	45
Tre' Harris	18

Jaguars receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Parker Washington	54
Jakobi Meyers	51
Dyami Brown	20
Travis Etienne	20
Johnny Mundt	19

Chargers vs. Jaguars game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 11 game between the Jaguars and Chargers at EverBank Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: EverBank Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chargers, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 11 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chargers vs. Jaguars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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