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Leeds vs. Burnley prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Leeds vs Burnley predictions for Premier League Friday.
Leeds and Burnley are scheduled to meet in the Premier League at Elland Road on Friday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Premier League model predicts Leeds as the most likely winner of the Leeds vs. Burnley game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Leeds vs. Burnley prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Premier League match between Leeds and Burnley, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model suggests a 64.0% chance of Leeds winning, a 14.6% chance for Burnley, and a 21.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Leeds vs. Burnley odds
We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Leeds | Burnley | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -230 | +650 | +380 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -150 | +120 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Leeds vs. Burnley picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burnley | +650 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +120 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Leeds vs. Burnley: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 Leeds win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leeds 1-0 BUR | 13.1% |
| Leeds 2-0 BUR | 12.5% |
| Leeds 1-1 BUR | 10.2% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 45.8% chance of both Leeds and Burnley finding the net and a 54.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Leeds vs. Burnley game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Premier League matchup between Leeds and Burnley at Elland Road is scheduled to commence in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.
World Cup 2026 watch: Brenden Aaronson (USA)
Leeds United midfielder Brenden Aaronson is a key name to follow for USMNT fans at the moment as interest ramps up ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026—a tournament already driving heavy demand for World Cup predictions and early debates about who will win the World Cup. With the United States placed alongside Australia, Paraguay, and Türkiye in Group D next year, Aaronson's Premier League form will be watched closely.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Leeds has a 64.0% win probability on Friday, Burnley has a 14.6% win probability, and there is a 21.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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