Leeds vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Leeds vs. Burnley Premier League match on May 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Burnley
1
3
Elland Road
Leeds
Elland Road
LeedsLU
Score Summary
BurnleyBUR
A. Stach (8')
Soccer ball icon
N. Okafor (52')
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D. Calvert-Lewin (56')
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L. Tchaouna (71')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Leeds
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Burnley
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces J. Bogle
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: W. Gnonto replaces D. Calvert-Lewin
  3. 88'
    Yellow Card
    H. Mejbri (Burnley) cautioned
  4. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Z. Amdouni replaces B. Humphreys
  5. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces Z. Flemming
  6. 75'
    Yellow Card
    E. Ampadu (Leeds) cautioned
  7. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: B. Aaronson replaces A. Stach
  8. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: S. Longstaff replaces A. Tanaka
  9. 71'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by L. Tchaouna, assisted by J. Anthony
    1-3
  10. 68'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  11. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces N. Okafor
  12. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces Q. Hartman
  13. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Florentino replaces J. Ward-Prowse
  14. 56'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by D. Calvert-Lewin
    0-3
  15. 54'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: H. Mejbri replaces J. Laurent
  16. 52'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by N. Okafor, assisted by J. Bogle
    0-2
  17. 48'
    Yellow Card
    D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) cautioned
  18. 40'
    Yellow Card
    J. Rodon (Leeds) cautioned
  19. 37'
    Yellow Card
    L. Tchaouna (Burnley) cautioned
  20. 35'
    Yellow Card
    B. Humphreys (Burnley) cautioned
  21. 27'
    Yellow Card
    P. Struijk (Leeds) cautioned
  22. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by A. Stach, assisted by J. Bijol
    0-1

Leeds vs. Burnley: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Leeds vs. Burnley
  • Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Elland Road

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Leeds -250, Burnley +750, draw +400
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-135/+110)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Leeds: 64.9%
  • Burnley: 14.0%
  • Draw: 21.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Leeds 1-0 Burnley (13.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Leeds vs. Burnley? Prediction & correct score

Leeds is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 64.9%.

The most likely correct score is Leeds 1-0 Burnley.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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