Aston Villa vs. Manchester City prediction, odds, Premier League picks [10/24/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's Premier League match between Aston Villa and Manchester City, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 19.1% chance of Aston Villa winning, a 60.0% chance for Manchester City, and a 20.9% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 60.6% chance of going over., with a 57.5% probability that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Manchester City -141, Aston Villa +400
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-178/+170)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Manchester City @ -141 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +170 via Novig

According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Manchester City win being the most probable:

• Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City (9.9% probability)
• Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City (9.6%)
• Aston Villa 0-2 Manchester City (9.2%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.5% chance of both sides finding the net and a 42.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's Premier League matchup between Aston Villa and Manchester City at Villa Park is scheduled to commence in the USA at 7:30 AM ET.

• Who: Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Time: 7:30 AM ET/4:30 AM PT
• Venue: Villa Park

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Aston Villa has a 19.1% win probability on Saturday, Manchester City has a 60.0% win probability, and there is a 20.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Premier League prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.