Raiders vs. Colts prediction: Why Indianapolis is favored to win in NFL Week 5, 2025

The Indianapolis Colts will square off with the Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 5 action at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Colts as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Raiders-Colts game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Colts with a win probability of 72%, while the Raiders have 28%."

This gameday Raiders vs. Colts betting preview builds on my Raiders vs. Colts prediction that was posted earlier in the week.

For further insights into today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Raiders vs. Colts predictions page.

Raiders vs. Colts Predictions

Since our Raiders-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Raiders and Colts 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Colts a 72% chance of beating the Raiders in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Colts winning 26-20.

According to our model, the Raiders (+7) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Raiders vs. Colts odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Raiders	Colts
Spread	+7 (+100)	-7 (-118)
Moneyline	+295	-360
Total	o46.5 (-112)	u46.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Raiders vs. Colts picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Raiders vs. Colts matchup is on the over/under.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Raiders vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Raiders vs. Colts?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score the first touchdown in Raiders vs. Colts.

Our projections give Taylor a 17.9% chance of scoring the first TD at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the Colts running back is a 59.9% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Las Vegas Raiders

Player	First TD Probability
Ashton Jeanty (RB)	12.5%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	7.6%
Tre Tucker (WR)	6.1%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	First TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	17.9%
Daniel Jones (QB)	8.0%
Tyler Warren (TE)	7.1%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Las Vegas Raiders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Ashton Jeanty (RB)	46.1%
Jakobi Meyers (WR)	31.3%
Tre Tucker (WR)	26.0%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	59.9%
Daniel Jones (QB)	33.5%
Tyler Warren (TE)	30.4%

Raiders vs Colts player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Raiders and Colts. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Raiders vs. Colts quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Raiders' Geno Smith is projected to throw for more yards than the Colts' Daniel Jones.

Raiders rushing

Ashton Jeanty, Raheem Mostert and Geno Smith are projected to be the leading rushers for the Raiders.

Player	Position
Ashton Jeanty	RB
Raheem Mostert	RB
Geno Smith	QB

Colts rushing

Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones and DJ Giddens are expected to lead the Colts in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Jonathan Taylor	RB
Daniel Jones	QB
DJ Giddens	RB

Raiders receiving

Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Dont'e Thornton, Jack Bech and Ashton Jeanty are projected to top the receiving yards for the Raiders.

Player	Position
Jakobi Meyers	WR
Tre Tucker	WR
Dont'e Thornton	WR
Jack Bech	WR
Ashton Jeanty	RB

Colts receiving

Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell and Jonathan Taylor are projected to lead the Colts in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Michael Pittman	WR
Tyler Warren	TE
Josh Downs	WR
Adonai Mitchell	WR
Jonathan Taylor	RB

Raiders vs. Colts game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 5 game between the Colts and Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Sunday's Raiders vs. Colts matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Raiders vs. Colts picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Colts, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 5 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Raiders vs. Colts insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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