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Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction: Why Iowa State is favored to win men's March Madness Second Round matchup [3/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Kentucky vs Iowa State predictions for college basketball Sunday.
Men's college basketball action continues on Sunday at 2:45 PM ET as Kentucky takes on the favored Iowa State in Second Round action at Enterprise Center.
For this Second Round matchup, Iowa State—led by the best trio in college basketball— face Kentucky, a $22 million roster undone by injuries.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Iowa State as the most likely winner of the Kentucky vs. Iowa State game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction: Who will win and advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NCAAM Tournament game between Kentucky and Iowa State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Iowa State a 69% chance of defeating Kentucky. Our predicted final score has Iowa State winning 76-71.
According to our model, Iowa State (-4.5) has a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 146.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds
We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Kentucky | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-102) | -4.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +195 | -210 |
| Total | o146.5 (-105) | u146.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State -4.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Iowa State | -210 |
| Total | Over 146.5 | -105 |
According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Iowa State -4.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's men's college basketball game between Iowa State and Kentucky at Enterprise Center is scheduled to commence at 2:45 PM ET.
- Who: Kentucky vs. Iowa State
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 2:45 PM ET/11:45AM PT
- Venue: Enterprise Center
- March Madness stage: Second Round
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Make the most of Dimers' Kentucky vs. Iowa State predictions by exploring the below offers from OG, Bet365, BetMGM, and Thrillzz.
Conclusion
We predict Iowa State, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat Kentucky this men's March Madness Second Round matchup.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Kentucky vs. Iowa State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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