Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction: Kansas City favored to win Thanksgiving Day NFL matchup, 2025

The Dallas Cowboys will square off with the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Thanksgiving Day action at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving Day, starting at 4:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chiefs vs. Cowboys game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Chiefs-Cowboys predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Cowboys 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 59% chance of defeating the Cowboys in Week 13 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 28-25.

According to our model, the Cowboys (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 53.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 13 straight up picks.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chiefs	Cowboys
Spread	-3 (-125)	+3 (-102)
Moneyline	-185	+165
Total	o53.5 (-110)	u53.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Cowboys +3	-102
Moneyline	Cowboys	+165
Total	Under 53.5	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cowboys +3 at the spread.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Cowboys?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chiefs vs. Cowboys.

Our projections give Williams a 53.0% chance of scoring a TD at AT&T Stadium, while the running back is an 11.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	49.2%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	41.1%
Travis Kelce (TE)	36.9%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	29.9%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	26.8%

Dallas Cowboys

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Javonte Williams (RB)	53.0%
CeeDee Lamb (WR)	39.6%
George Pickens (WR)	39.0%
Jake Ferguson (TE)	29.5%
Dak Prescott (QB)	12.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	10.3%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	8.0%
Travis Kelce (TE)	7.0%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	5.4%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	4.7%

Dallas Cowboys

Player	First TD Probability
Javonte Williams (RB)	11.6%
CeeDee Lamb (WR)	7.8%
George Pickens (WR)	7.6%
Jake Ferguson (TE)	5.4%
Dak Prescott (QB)	2.1%

Chiefs vs Cowboys player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Cowboys. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 13 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to have a big game with 285 passing yards, while the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is expected to throw for a whopping 275 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	285
Dak Prescott (DAL)	275

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kareem Hunt	38
Isiah Pacheco	34
Patrick Mahomes	27

Cowboys rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Javonte Williams	69
Dak Prescott	14
Malik Davis	11

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	81
Travis Kelce	57
Xavier Worthy	46
Hollywood Brown	25
JuJu Smith-Schuster	17

Cowboys receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
CeeDee Lamb	86
George Pickens	77
Jake Ferguson	42
KaVontae Turpin	22
Ryan Flournoy	15

Chiefs vs. Cowboys game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 13 game between the Cowboys and Chiefs at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:30PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
• Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving Day)
• Time: 4:30PM ET/1:30PM PT
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Cowboys in Week 13 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Cowboys insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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