Chiefs vs. Bills prediction: Kansas City favored to win in NFL Week 9, 2025

The Buffalo Bills will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 9 action at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 4:25PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chiefs vs. Bills game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Chiefs vs. Bills prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Chiefs-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Bills 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 56% chance of beating the Bills in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 27-25.

According to our model, the Bills (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 52.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Chiefs vs. Bills odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chiefs	Bills
Spread	-2.5 (-105)	+2.5 (-112)
Moneyline	-134	+115
Total	o52.5 (-114)	u52.5 (-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chiefs vs. Bills picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Bills +2.5	-112
Moneyline	Chiefs	-134
Total	Under 52.5	-106

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bills +2.5 at the spread.

Chiefs vs. Bills TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 9, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chiefs vs. Bills.

Our projections give Cook a 54.4% chance of getting in for six at Highmark Stadium, while the running back is a 10.9% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	47.9%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	45.2%
Travis Kelce (TE)	36.9%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	32.0%
Brashard Smith (RB)	22.5%

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	54.4%
Josh Allen (QB)	38.5%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	30.8%
Dalton Kincaid (TE)	27.1%
Keon Coleman (WR)	25.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	10.0%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	9.2%
Travis Kelce (TE)	7.0%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	5.9%
Brashard Smith (RB)	3.9%

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	10.9%
Josh Allen (QB)	6.8%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	5.1%
Dalton Kincaid (TE)	4.4%
Keon Coleman (WR)	4.1%

Chiefs vs Bills player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Bills. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to have a big game with 277 passing yards. The Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 242 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	277
Josh Allen (BUF)	242

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kareem Hunt	47
Patrick Mahomes	31
Brashard Smith	21

Bills rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
James Cook	76
Josh Allen	43
Ty Johnson	15

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	77
Xavier Worthy	52
Travis Kelce	47
Hollywood Brown	26
Brashard Smith	20

Bills receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Khalil Shakir	56
Keon Coleman	47
Dalton Kincaid	41
Elijah Moore	23
Tyrell Shavers	19

Chiefs vs. Bills game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 9 action between the Bills and Chiefs at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Bills in Week 9 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Bills insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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