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Texans vs. Titans prediction: Why Houston is favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans will meet in Week 11 of the NFL season at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 1:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Texans as the most likely winner of the Texans vs. Titans game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Texans vs. Titans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Texans-Titans predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Texans and Titans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Texans a 72% chance of defeating the Titans in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 21-16.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Texans and Titans each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 37.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.
Texans vs. Titans odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-106) | +5.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -230 | +225 |
| Total | o37.5 (-104) | u37.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Texans vs. Titans picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans -5.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Texans | -230 |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -104 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans to win.
Texans vs. Titans TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Titans?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 11, Woody Marks is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Texans vs. Titans.
Our projections give Marks a 43.5% chance of scoring a TD at Nissan Stadium, while the running back is an 11.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 43.5% |
| Nico Collins (WR) | 37.8% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 24.7% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 23.5% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 18.3% |
Tennessee Titans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears (RB) | 29.8% |
| Tony Pollard (RB) | 26.2% |
| Elic Ayomanor (WR) | 19.0% |
| Calvin Ridley (WR) | 18.9% |
| Chimere Dike (WR) | 16.8% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 11.7% |
| Nico Collins (WR) | 9.8% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 5.8% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 5.5% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 4.2% |
Tennessee Titans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears (RB) | 8.6% |
| Tony Pollard (RB) | 7.4% |
| Elic Ayomanor (WR) | 5.1% |
| Calvin Ridley (WR) | 5.1% |
| Chimere Dike (WR) | 4.5% |
Texans vs Titans player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Titans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' Davis Mills is projected for 219 passing yards, while the Titans' Cam Ward is expected to throw for just 188 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Davis Mills (HOU) | 219 |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | 188 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 62 |
| Nick Chubb | 37 |
| Davis Mills | 9 |
Titans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 44 |
| Tyjae Spears | 34 |
| Cam Ward | 9 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 70 |
| Dalton Schultz | 39 |
| Christian Kirk | 23 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 23 |
| Jayden Higgins | 23 |
Titans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 38 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 31 |
| Chimere Dike | 29 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 26 |
| Tyjae Spears | 19 |
Texans vs. Titans game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 11 game between the Titans and Texans at Nissan Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Nissan Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Texans, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Titans in Week 11 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Titans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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