Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots updated prediction featuring Nico Collins, Rhamondre Stevenson [Divisional Round, 2026]

Dimers' latest NFL predictions are live for New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans in Divisional Round of the playoffs, with our model giving the Patriots a 64% of winning.

As Sunday approaches, both teams have updated their injury reports. Some lineup calls are still undecided, and those could shape how each side approaches this AFC matchup.

Since our early Patriots-Texans predictions, we’ve updated the win probabilities, score projections, and TD odds for Nico Collins, Rhamondre Stevenson, and others.

For the full simulation breakdown—including spreads, totals, touchdown probabilities, and the full list of player props—check out our Texans vs. Patriots page.

What's changed? Houston vs. New England updated predictions

Our NFL predictions model has been re-run with the newest available data, creating a clearer picture of how this Texans vs. Patriots matchup stacks up. Here are the updated forecasts:

• Straight Up Win Probabilities: Texans 36%, Patriots 64%
• Predicted Final Score: Texans 19-22 Patriots
• Spread: Texans (+3.5) 50%, Patriots (-3.5) 50%
• Total Points (40.5): Over 56%, Under 44%

As of January 15, 2026, these Texans-Patriots numbers reflect changes since our early-week simulation.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New NFL player projections for the Divisional Round highlight the top candidates to find the end zone in Texans-Patriots on Sunday:

Houston Texans

• Nico Collins: 38.1% probability
• Woody Marks: 34.3% probability
• Dalton Schultz: 25.8% probability

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 39.7% probability
• TreVeyon Henderson: 36.9% probability
• Hunter Henry: 30.9% probability

Texans vs. Patriots latest odds

The best current odds from the top sportsbooks in the US:

• Spread: Texans +3.5 (-118), Patriots -3.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Texans +148, Patriots -170
• Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-105)

Odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change—track live updates via our NFL odds page.

Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round details

Sunday's matchup between the Patriots and Texans at Gillette Stadium is scheduled for January 18, 2026.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in this NFL postseason matchup. Dimers.com will provide full game coverage closer to kickoff, so stay tuned for updates.

Enhanced by AI and automation, this article delivers quick, accurate insights on the Texans vs. Patriots matchup, with human oversight maintaining high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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