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Texans vs. Patriots prediction: New England favored to win Divisional Round game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Houston Texans vs New England Patriots predictions for NFL Sunday.
The New England Patriots and Houston Texans are scheduled to meet in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Texans vs. Patriots game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Texans vs. Patriots prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Texans-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Patriots a 63% chance of defeating the Texans. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 22-19.
According to our model, the Texans (+3.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 40.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 20 straight up picks.
Texans vs. Patriots odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Texans | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +168 | -180 |
| Total | o40.5 (-115) | u40.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Texans vs. Patriots picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans +3.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Texans | +168 |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -115 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans +3.5 at the spread.
Texans vs. Patriots TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Patriots?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 20, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Texans vs. Patriots.
Our projections give Stevenson a 39.7% chance of scoring a TD at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 9.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 35.7% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 25.9% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 25.1% |
| Christian Kirk (WR) | 23.2% |
| Xavier Hutchinson (WR) | 17.7% |
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 39.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 35.4% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 31.0% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 28.9% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 27.1% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 8.7% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 5.9% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 5.7% |
| Christian Kirk (WR) | 5.2% |
| Xavier Hutchinson (WR) | 3.8% |
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 9.2% |
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 8.0% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 6.8% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 6.2% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 5.8% |
Texans vs Patriots player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 20 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 216 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 231 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 216 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 231 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 62 |
| Nick Chubb | 22 |
| C.J. Stroud | 14 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 42 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 38 |
| Drake Maye | 35 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 44 |
| Dalton Schultz | 43 |
| Jayden Higgins | 43 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 35 |
| Jaylin Noel | 16 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 54 |
| Hunter Henry | 43 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 38 |
| DeMario Douglas | 26 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 24 |
Texans vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Patriots and Texans at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Patriots, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Texans on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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