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Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win ‘SNF’ Week 14, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions for NFL Sunday.
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The Kansas City Chiefs will square off with the Houston Texans in NFL Week 14 action at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 8:20PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Texans vs. Chiefs game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win ‘Sunday Night Football’?
Since our Texans-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Chiefs a 67% chance of defeating the Texans in Week 14 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 23-18.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Texans and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 54% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 14 straight up picks.
Texans vs. Chiefs odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Texans | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-104) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +198 | -218 |
| Total | o41.5 (-110) | u41.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Texans vs. Chiefs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans +4.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Texans | +198 |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 41.5 total points.
Texans vs. Chiefs TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Chiefs?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Rashee Rice is most likely to score an anytime TD in Texans vs. Chiefs.
Our projections give Rice a 43.4% chance of getting in for six at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 36.8% |
| Nico Collins (WR) | 34.7% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 22.1% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 21.2% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 17.3% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice (WR) | 43.4% |
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 42.8% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 30.2% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 24.2% |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB) | 18.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 8.7% |
| Nico Collins (WR) | 8.1% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 4.7% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 4.5% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 3.6% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice (WR) | 11.0% |
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 10.7% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 6.9% |
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 5.3% |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB) | 4.0% |
Texans vs Chiefs player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 14 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 238 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 248 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 238 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 248 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 52 |
| Nick Chubb | 22 |
| C.J. Stroud | 16 |
Chiefs rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 39 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 28 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 26 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 72 |
| Dalton Schultz | 43 |
| Jayden Higgins | 40 |
| Christian Kirk | 22 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 21 |
Chiefs receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 73 |
| Travis Kelce | 49 |
| Xavier Worthy | 41 |
| Hollywood Brown | 21 |
| Noah Gray | 14 |
Texans vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 14 action between the Chiefs and Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:20PM ET.
- Who: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 8:20PM ET/5:20PM PT
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Chiefs, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in Week 14 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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