Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win ‘SNF’ Week 14, 2025

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The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans are scheduled to meet in Week 14 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, starting at 8:20PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Texans vs. Chiefs game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win ‘Sunday Night Football’?

Since our Texans-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 67% chance of defeating the Texans in Week 14 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 23-18.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Texans and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 41.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 14 straight up picks.

Texans vs. Chiefs odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Texans	Chiefs
Spread	+4.5 (-105)	-4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+190	-218
Total	o41.5 (-110)	u41.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Texans vs. Chiefs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chiefs -4.5	-105
Moneyline	Chiefs	-218
Total	Over 41.5	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 41.5 total points.

Texans vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Rashee Rice is most likely to score an anytime TD in Texans vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Rice a 43.4% chance of getting in for six at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Woody Marks (RB)	36.8%
Nico Collins (WR)	34.7%
Jayden Higgins (WR)	22.1%
Dalton Schultz (TE)	21.2%
Nick Chubb (RB)	17.3%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	43.4%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	42.8%
Travis Kelce (TE)	30.2%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	24.2%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	18.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

Player	First TD Probability
Woody Marks (RB)	8.7%
Nico Collins (WR)	8.1%
Jayden Higgins (WR)	4.7%
Dalton Schultz (TE)	4.5%
Nick Chubb (RB)	3.6%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	11.0%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	10.7%
Travis Kelce (TE)	6.9%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	5.3%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	4.0%

Texans vs Chiefs player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 14 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 238 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 248 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
C.J. Stroud (HOU)	238
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	248

Texans rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Woody Marks	52
Nick Chubb	22
C.J. Stroud	16

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kareem Hunt	39
Isiah Pacheco	28
Patrick Mahomes	26

Texans receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Nico Collins	72
Dalton Schultz	43
Jayden Higgins	40
Christian Kirk	22
Xavier Hutchinson	21

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	73
Travis Kelce	49
Xavier Worthy	41
Hollywood Brown	21
Noah Gray	14

Texans vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 14 matchup between the Chiefs and Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:20PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
• Time: 8:20PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in Week 14 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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