Texans vs. Colts prediction: Why Indianapolis is favored to win in NFL Week 13, 2025

The Indianapolis Colts will face the Houston Texans in NFL Week 13 action at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Colts as the most likely winner of the Texans vs. Colts game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Texans vs. Colts prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Texans-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Texans and Colts 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Colts a 61% chance of beating the Texans in Week 13 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Colts winning 23-20.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Texans and Colts each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 13 straight up picks.

Texans vs. Colts odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Texans	Colts
Spread	+3 (-105)	-3 (-114)
Moneyline	+142	-165
Total	o44.5 (-108)	u44.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Texans vs. Colts picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Texans +3	-105
Moneyline	Colts	-165
Total	Over 44.5	-108

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans +3 at the spread.

Texans vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Colts?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Texans vs. Colts.

Our projections give Taylor a 68.5% chance of scoring a TD at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the running back is a 20.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Woody Marks (RB)	40.5%
Nico Collins (WR)	39.4%
Jayden Higgins (WR)	26.1%
Dalton Schultz (TE)	25.0%
Christian Kirk (WR)	17.2%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	68.5%
Michael Pittman (WR)	28.9%
Tyler Warren (TE)	27.2%
Alec Pierce (WR)	23.7%
Josh Downs (WR)	22.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

Player	First TD Probability
Woody Marks (RB)	9.0%
Nico Collins (WR)	8.7%
Jayden Higgins (WR)	5.3%
Dalton Schultz (TE)	5.0%
Christian Kirk (WR)	3.3%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	First TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	20.2%
Michael Pittman (WR)	6.0%
Tyler Warren (TE)	5.6%
Alec Pierce (WR)	4.7%
Josh Downs (WR)	4.5%

Texans vs Colts player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 13 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 240 passing yards. The Colts' Daniel Jones is expected to throw for 229 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
C.J. Stroud (HOU)	240
Daniel Jones (IND)	229

Texans rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Woody Marks	58
Nick Chubb	25
C.J. Stroud	17

Colts rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jonathan Taylor	88
Daniel Jones	14
Ameer Abdullah	6

Texans receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Nico Collins	69
Dalton Schultz	44
Jayden Higgins	42
Christian Kirk	25
Woody Marks	16

Colts receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Michael Pittman	54
Tyler Warren	50
Alec Pierce	50
Josh Downs	39
Jonathan Taylor	19

Texans vs. Colts game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 13 matchup between the Colts and Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Colts, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in Week 13 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Colts insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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