Rockets vs. Wizards prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Monday's NBA matchup [3/2/2026]

The Washington Wizards and Houston Rockets will meet in NBA action at Capital One Arena on Monday, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Wizards game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Wizards lineup will feature players like Will Riley, Tre Johnson and Jaden Hardy, while the Rockets will look to Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Rockets vs. Wizards prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA game between the Rockets and Wizards 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Rockets an 86% chance of defeating the Wizards. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 119-106.

According to our model, the Wizards (+14.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 225.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Rockets vs. Wizards odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Rockets	Wizards
Spread	-14.5 (-110)	+14.5 (-106)
Moneyline	-1000	+660
Total	o225.5 (-110)	u225.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rockets vs. Wizards picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Wizards +14.5	-106
Moneyline	Wizards	+660
Total	Over 225.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Wizards +14.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Rockets vs. Wizards player props

NBA player props are a common way to wager on the Houston vs. Washington matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Capital One Arena.

Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 27 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, while Will Riley is projected to have 15 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Wizards.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Rockets prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kevin Durant	27	6	5	3	48
Alperen Sengun	20	10	6	0	48
Amen Thompson	18	8	5	0	42
Reed Sheppard	17	3	4	3	34
Tari Eason	15	8	2	2	36

Wizards prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Wizards:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Will Riley	15	4	3	1	29
Tre Johnson	11	2	2	2	21
Jaden Hardy	11	2	1	2	19
Bilal Coulibaly	11	4	2	1	24
Kyshawn George	11	4	3	1	24

Rockets vs. Wizards game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Wizards and Rockets at Capital One Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Rockets vs. Washington Wizards
• Date: Monday, March 2, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Rockets, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Wizards on Monday, with Alperen Sengun projected for a game-high 48 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Wizards insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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