Rockets vs. Hawks prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for 29 points in Thursday's NBA game [1/29/2026]

The Atlanta Hawks will face the favored Houston Rockets in NBA action at State Farm Arena on Thursday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.

The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.

The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Hawks game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Hawks lineup will feature players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum and Dyson Daniels, while the Rockets will rely on Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Rockets vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Hawks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 72% chance of defeating the Hawks. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 114-107.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Rockets and Hawks each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 224.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

Rockets vs. Hawks odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Rockets	Hawks
Spread	-6.5 (-110)	+6.5 (-106)
Moneyline	-250	+230
Total	o224.5 (-110)	u224.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rockets vs. Hawks picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Hawks +6.5	-106
Moneyline	Rockets	-250
Total	Under 224.5	-105

According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Under 224.5 total points.

Rockets vs. Hawks player props

Looking for Houston vs. Atlanta NBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at State Farm Arena.

Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 29 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Hawks.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Rockets prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kevin Durant	29	6	5	3	52
Amen Thompson	21	9	6	0	46
Alperen Sengun	20	9	6	0	48
Jabari Smith	15	7	2	2	33
Reed Sheppard	13	3	3	3	28

Hawks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Hawks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
N. Alexander-Walker	19	4	3	3	35
CJ McCollum	18	3	4	2	32
Dyson Daniels	13	7	7	0	38
Corey Kispert	12	3	2	2	22
Luke Kennard	9	3	3	2	20

Rockets vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Hawks and Rockets at State Farm Arena is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks
• Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: State Farm Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Rockets, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Hawks on Thursday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Hawks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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