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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, January 29, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/29.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, January 29, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Jamal Murray lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 29, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.3% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 15.2% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.5% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.5% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 13.2% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.2% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.1% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 13.1% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.9% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.7% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 12.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.7% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | Nuggets | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 29, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 4.0% | +600 | 18.3% |
| Corey Kispert | Hawks | 3.0% | +1100 | 11.3% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.1% | +850 | 12.7% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 1.5% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 1.4% | +750 | 13.1% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 1.4% | +750 | 13.1% |
| Dyson Daniels | Hawks | 1.0% | +850 | 11.5% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 0.9% | +950 | 10.4% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 0.1% | +850 | 10.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/29.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, January 29, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Jamal Murray lead our first basket projections, with Gilgeous-Alexander shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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