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Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Friday.
MLB action continues on Friday at 7:10 PM ET as the Houston Astros square off with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Jake Bennett (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Red Sox, while the Astros have opted for Mike Burrows (1-3, 6.25 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Astros vs. Red Sox matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Red Sox a 51% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Astros vs. Red Sox odds [5/1/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+160) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -120 |
| Total | o9.5 (+102) | u9.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +160 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +105 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | +102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Astros at Fenway Park is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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