Home Run Parlay: Two HR props in Twins vs. Blue Jays on Thursday, April 30

1. Byron Buxton (Twins) to hit a home run (+390)

Game: Twins vs. Blue Jays

Time: 7:40 PM ET

On the Twins side of things, we'll go with our top probability to hit a home run for Minnesota, Byron Buxton.

Buxton is up to 7 HR on the season, with 4 in his past 8 games and going yard twice in their most recent series vs. the Mariners. Notably, those two home runs came on the road, his only two so far this year, as he hits much better at home over a near-even split, with 5 HR and a .936 OPS compared to 2 HR and a .551 OPS in away games.

He's hit all 7 off of righthanded hitters, and he'll get one tonight in Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, who the Dimers model projects with a 47.7% probability to allow at least 3 earned runs. Gausman is pitching well to start the year, but has given up 20+ HR in 3 of his past 5 seasons and 3 so far in 2026. He primarily throws 4-seam/split-finger to righties, a pair of pitches Buxton has slugged well over hits past few seasons.

Buxton's 14.8% HR probability makes him a fair play at +575 so there's no value here, but you'll get the best odds on him at DraftKings.

2. George Springer (Blue Jays) to hit a home run (+501)

For our Blue Jays pick, we'll look just past today's top three overall and go with George Springer at a 13.3% probability to hit a home run.

Springer knocked a pair of home runs in his first four games of the year, and just made his return to the lineup last night after missing a couple of weeks, picking up a hit and RBI in 2 AB.

He saw a power surge last season with 32 home runs, for his highest total since joining Toronto in 2021. Three of those home runs from last season came in the two games he faced tonight's Twins starter, Bailey Ober. Springer crushed Ober's primary pitch mix last year and should try to capitalize on that tonight.

Ober has given up three home runs so far this season with middling analytics; his impressive average Exit Velo and Hard Hit rates limit some of the offsetting power from batters, but his fastball velocity is in the lowest percentile of all qualified MLB pitchers and he doesn't get batters to swing and miss very much, leading to a lot of high-quality contact.

Ober projects for 2.8 earned runs, the third most on tonight's slate, setting up Springer with multiple datapoints in favor of him picking up HR No. 3 on the year.

Our top-projected home run hitters in Twins vs. Blue Jays on Thursday.

MLB home run parlay at +2800 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +2800 on DraftKings Sportsbook, returning $290 off a $10 bet, where you can utilize a profit boost for even better odds.

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