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Hailey Baptiste vs. Jasmine Paolini prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Baptiste vs Paolini predictions for WTA Madrid Open.
Hailey Baptiste will square off with Jasmine Paolini in the round of 32 at the WTA Madrid event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Jasmine Paolini as the most likely winner of the Baptiste vs. Paolini match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Baptiste vs. Paolini prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Baptiste-Paolini women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Paolini a 56% chance of defeating Baptiste at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Paolini has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Baptiste (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Hailey Baptiste vs. Jasmine Paolini odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Baptiste | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 | -148 |
| First Set | +120 | -152 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-120) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-110) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Baptiste vs. Paolini picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baptiste | +130 |
| First Set | Paolini | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Hailey Baptiste to win.
Although Baptiste is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Baptiste vs. Paolini updates and essential details
The WTA Madrid Open match between Hailey Baptiste and Jasmine Paolini is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 10:10 AM ET.
- Who: Hailey Baptiste vs. Jasmine Paolini
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Approx. Time: 10:10 AM ET/7:10AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Jasmine Paolini, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Hailey Baptiste at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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