Packers vs. Lions prediction: Detroit favored to win Thanksgiving Day NFL matchup, 2025

The Detroit Lions will take on the Green Bay Packers in NFL Thanksgiving Day action at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day, starting at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Packers vs. Lions game.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Packers vs. Lions prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Packers-Lions predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Packers and Lions 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lions a 61% chance of beating the Packers in Week 13 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 25-22.

According to our model, the Lions (-2.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 13 straight up picks.

Packers vs. Lions odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Packers	Lions
Spread	+2.5 (+105)	-2.5 (-125)
Moneyline	+142	-155
Total	o47.5 (-118)	u47.5 (-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Packers vs. Lions picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Lions -2.5	-125
Moneyline	Lions	-155
Total	Over 47.5	-118

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions -2.5 at the spread.

Packers vs. Lions TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Lions?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Packers vs. Lions.

Our projections give Gibbs a 63.6% chance of getting in for six at Ford Field, while the running back is a 15.7% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Josh Jacobs (RB)	55.6%
Romeo Doubs (WR)	31.0%
Christian Watson (WR)	30.2%
Emanuel Wilson (RB)	26.8%
Dontayvion Wicks (WR)	21.0%

Detroit Lions

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	63.6%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	46.5%
David Montgomery (RB)	36.7%
Jameson Williams (WR)	33.2%
Ross Dwelley (TE)	16.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

Player	First TD Probability
Josh Jacobs (RB)	13.0%
Romeo Doubs (WR)	6.0%
Christian Watson (WR)	5.8%
Emanuel Wilson (RB)	5.0%
Dontayvion Wicks (WR)	3.8%

Detroit Lions

Player	First TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	15.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	9.7%
David Montgomery (RB)	7.1%
Jameson Williams (WR)	6.3%
Ross Dwelley (TE)	2.8%

Packers vs Lions player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Lions. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 13 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Jordan Love is projected for 235 passing yards, while the Lions' Jared Goff is expected to throw for 242 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Jordan Love (GB)	235
Jared Goff (DET)	242

Packers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Josh Jacobs	65
Emanuel Wilson	28
Jordan Love	14

Lions rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs	80
David Montgomery	38
Jared Goff	4

Packers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Christian Watson	62
Romeo Doubs	52
Dontayvion Wicks	38
Josh Jacobs	19
Luke Musgrave	18

Lions receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown	85
Jameson Williams	56
Jahmyr Gibbs	40
Isaac TeSlaa	23
Ross Dwelley	15

Packers vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 13 matchup between the Lions and Packers at Ford Field is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
• Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving Day)
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Ford Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Packers in Week 13 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Packers vs. Lions insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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