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Packers vs. Bears prediction: Why Green Bay is favored to win Wild Card game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears predictions for NFL Saturday.
NFL action continues on Saturday at 8:00 PM ET as the Green Bay Packers take on the Chicago Bears in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs at Soldier Field.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Packers as the most likely winner of the Packers vs. Bears game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Packers vs. Bears prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Packers-Bears predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NFL matchup between the Packers and Bears 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Packers a 56% chance of beating the Bears. Our predicted final score has the Packers winning 23-22.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Packers and Bears each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 19 straight up picks.
Packers vs. Bears odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Packers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-115) | +1.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +110 |
| Total | o46.5 (-105) | u46.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Packers vs. Bears picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears +1.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Packers | -125 |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Packers to win.
Packers vs. Bears TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Bears?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Josh Jacobs is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Packers vs. Bears.
Our projections give Jacobs a 58.8% chance of scoring a TD at Soldier Field, while the running back is a 14.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (RB) | 58.8% |
| Christian Watson (WR) | 36.5% |
| Romeo Doubs (WR) | 29.1% |
| Jayden Reed (WR) | 27.4% |
| Emanuel Wilson (RB) | 16.7% |
Chicago Bears
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (RB) | 37.9% |
| Kyle Monangai (RB) | 29.4% |
| Colston Loveland (TE) | 27.5% |
| Rome Odunze (WR) | 25.8% |
| Luther Burden (WR) | 22.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Green Bay Packers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (RB) | 14.5% |
| Christian Watson (WR) | 7.4% |
| Romeo Doubs (WR) | 5.6% |
| Jayden Reed (WR) | 5.2% |
| Emanuel Wilson (RB) | 3.0% |
Chicago Bears
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (RB) | 8.6% |
| Kyle Monangai (RB) | 6.2% |
| Colston Loveland (TE) | 5.8% |
| Rome Odunze (WR) | 5.4% |
| Luther Burden (WR) | 4.6% |
Packers vs Bears player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Bears. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 19 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Jordan Love is projected for 230 passing yards, while the Bears' Caleb Williams is expected to throw for 213 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love (GB) | 230 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 213 |
Packers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 79 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 18 |
| Jordan Love | 14 |
Bears rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 64 |
| Kyle Monangai | 43 |
| Caleb Williams | 24 |
Packers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 60 |
| Jayden Reed | 42 |
| Romeo Doubs | 41 |
| Luke Musgrave | 25 |
| Matthew Golden | 21 |
Bears receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 48 |
| Luther Burden | 46 |
| Rome Odunze | 38 |
| DJ Moore | 32 |
| Cole Kmet | 18 |
Packers vs. Bears game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Bears and Packers at Soldier Field is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
- Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Soldier Field
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Conclusion
We predict the Packers, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Bears on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Packers vs. Bears insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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