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Warriors vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Thursday's NBA matchup [3/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will lock horns in NBA action at Toyota Center on Thursday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature stars like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Warriors will rely on Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton and Gui Santos.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Warriors vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA game between the Warriors and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 77% chance of beating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 112-103.
According to our model, the Warriors (+9.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 214.5 points has a 52% chance of going over.
Warriors vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Warriors | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-106) | -9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +320 | -395 |
| Total | o214.5 (-110) | u214.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Warriors vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors +9.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | +320 |
| Total | Over 214.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors +9.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Warriors vs. Rockets player props
Looking for Golden State vs. Houston NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Brandin Podziemski is expected to lead the Warriors with 15 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 25 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Warriors prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Warriors are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Podziemski | 15 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 35 |
| D. Melton | 15 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Gui Santos | 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Al Horford | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| Pat Spencer | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 25 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| Alperen Sengun | 19 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 48 |
| Amen Thompson | 15 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 39 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Reed Sheppard | 15 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
Warriors vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Rockets and Warriors at Toyota Center is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors on Thursday, with Alperen Sengun projected for a game-high 48 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Warriors vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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