Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction: Golden State to win, Stephen Curry projected for big game in Thursday's NBA matchup [1/22/2026]

The Dallas Mavericks will face the favored Golden State Warriors in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Thursday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Mavericks game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington, while the Warriors will be led by Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Warriors vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA game between the Warriors and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Warriors a 70% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Warriors winning 118-112.

According to our model, the Mavericks (+6.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 234.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.

Warriors vs. Mavericks odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Warriors vs. Mavericks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Under 234.5 total points.

Warriors vs. Mavericks player props

NBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on Thursday's Golden State vs. Dallas game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.

Stephen Curry is expected to lead the Warriors with 28 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Cooper Flagg is projected to have 15 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for the Mavericks.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Warriors prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Warriors are:

Mavericks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:

Warriors vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Mavericks and Warriors at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: American Airlines Center

Conclusion

We predict the Warriors, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Thursday, with Stephen Curry projected for a game-high 48 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Warriors vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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