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Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA game on January 22, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
115
123
Jan 23, 12:30AM American Airlines Center
Jan 23, 12:30AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | 27 | 23 | 39 | 22 | 115 |
Mavericks | 24 | 31 | 29 | 39 | 123 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | 27 | 23 | 39 | 22 | 115 |
Mavericks | 24 | 31 | 29 | 39 | 123 |
Q4 00:06 Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:30 Moses Moody makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Stephen Curry misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:05 De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot (Moses Moody assists)
Q4 2:59 Stephen Curry misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:35 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:50 Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:59 Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:54 Dwight Powell makes two point cutting layup (Naji Marshall assists)
Q4 6:55 Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Mavericks defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
+3
Moses Moody makes three point jump shot
111-123
Mavericks turnover
Brandin Podziemski misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Miles Kelly, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington)
Stephen Curry misses two point jump shot
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
109-121
+2
De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot (Moses Moody assists)
112-123
Naji Marshall personal foul (De'Anthony Melton draws the foul)
+1
De'Anthony Melton makes regular free throw 2 of 2
109-118
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Upheld)
Mavericks challenge timeout
Stephen Curry misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-123
Warriors personal foul
Cooper Flagg misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors personal foul
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-123
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Instant replay (Challenge)
Warriors challenge timeout
Brandon Williams turnover (lost ball)
Warriors offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Cooper Flagg personal foul (Moses Moody draws the foul)
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
101-113
Warriors 60 second timeout
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
+2
Dwight Powell makes two point cutting layup (Naji Marshall assists)
101-104
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Max Christie)
+1
Max Christie makes regular free throw 1 of 2
101-104
+1
Max Christie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
101-104
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
Mavericks 60 second timeout
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
101-102
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
98-102
Warriors personal foul
Max Christie misses three point jump shot
Buddy Hield turnover (lost ball)
Mavericks turnover
Warriors personal foul
Al Horford turnover (offensive foul)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
101-104
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Ryan Nembhard, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Max Christie)
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
101-102
Instant replay
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
+2
Buddy Hield makes two point jump shot
96-99
Max Christie turnover
Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating bank jump shot
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
+2
Max Christie makes two point driving reverse layup
101-102
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
De'Anthony Melton misses two point jump shot
Mavericks turnover (8-second violation)
Warriors offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Al Horford defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
P.J. Washington offensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
P.J. Washington shooting foul (De'Anthony Melton draws the foul)
De'Anthony Melton misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
89-84
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
74-79
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Klay Thompson turnover (bad pass)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Naji Marshall turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
74-79
+3
Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (P.J. Washington assists)
74-79
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
74-79
+2
De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot
74-79
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Will Richard personal foul
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
74-79
Al Horford personal foul
Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+2
Max Christie makes two point running layup
69-72
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot (P.J. Washington assists)
69-70
Warriors 60 second timeout
Gary Payton II turnover (lost ball) (P.J. Washington steals)
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
69-67
Max Christie offensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
69-65
Mavericks personal foul
Moses Moody personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
67-65
+2
Draymond Green makes two point jump shot
67-63
+2
Dwight Powell makes two point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
67-65
Mavericks offensive rebound
Moses Moody personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Mavericks personal foul
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
63-61
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Max Christie)
+3
Moses Moody makes three point jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
63-59
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Stephen Curry violation
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
60-59
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-59
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
58-57
Mavericks offensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
58-55
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
56-55
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
89-84
Warriors offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry)
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Cooper Flagg, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Max Christie)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
50-55
Mavericks turnover
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 1 of 2
49-53
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
50-53
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
48-53
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
48-51
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Mavericks violation
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors turnover
Al Horford turnover (offensive foul)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
45-41
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Moses Moody defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Jonathan Kuminga makes regular free throw 2 of 2
45-39
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Max Christie)
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
39-37
Mavericks personal foul
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Moses Moody makes technical free throw 1 of 1
40-37
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
37-37
Al Horford defensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
Cooper Flagg misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Ryan Nembhard, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall)
Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford)
Warriors turnover
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
31-33
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+1
Draymond Green makes regular free throw 1 of 2
30-31
+1
Draymond Green makes regular free throw 2 of 2
31-31
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
29-31
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Warriors personal foul
Gary Payton II offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
29-27
Ryan Nembhard offensive rebound
Mavericks turnover
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Max Christie defensive rebound
Instant replay
Mavericks offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield)
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
27-24
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
27-21
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Al Horford defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Mavericks personal foul
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Klay Thompson, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Brandon Williams, P.J. Washington)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
21-21
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
P.J. Washington offensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
18-17
Mavericks personal foul
Caleb Martin turnover (offensive foul)
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford)
Warriors turnover
Al Horford defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
P.J. Washington offensive rebound
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse, P.J. Washington)
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 2
11-15
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Gary Payton II, De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Al Horford)
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington)
Mavericks turnover
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Dwight Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
3-7
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks turnover
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Caleb Martin misses three point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point pullup jump shot
0-6
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Draymond Green turnover (bad pass) (Max Christie steals)
Moses Moody defensive rebound
Stephen Curry misses two point pullup jump shot
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Stephen Curry shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses three point pullup jump shot
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Max Christie misses three point pullup jump shot
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry)
Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 21 | Q. Post | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 3 | W. Richard | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| G | 2 | B. Podziemski | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| F | 4 | M. Moody | 12 | 3 | 3 |
| G | 7 | B. Hield | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 14 | M. Kelly | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 10 | B. Williams | 19 | 5 | 4 |
| F | 25 | P. Washington | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| F | 16 | C. Martin | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| G | 13 | N. Marshall | 30 | 7 | 9 |
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Warriors vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Warriors vs. Mavericks
- Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors favored at -6.5
- Total (Over/Under): 235
- Moneyline Odds: Warriors -245, Mavericks +210
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Warriors: 70%
- Mavericks: 30%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Warriors 119-113 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Warriors a win probability of 70%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 30%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Warriors vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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