Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA game on January 22, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Warriors
115
123
American Airlines Center
Mavericks
American Airlines Center
TEAM1234T
Warriors
27 23 39 22 115
Mavericks
24 31 29 39 123
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Warriors
    <1%
  • Mavericks
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Warriors
27 23 39 22 115
Mavericks
24 31 29 39 123
Q4 00:06 Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:30 Moses Moody makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Stephen Curry misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:05 De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot (Moses Moody assists)
Q4 2:59 Stephen Curry misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:35 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:50 Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:59 Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:54 Dwight Powell makes two point cutting layup (Naji Marshall assists)
Q4 6:55 Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:04
    Mavericks defensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:06
    Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
  3. Q4 00:30
    +3
    Moses Moody makes three point jump shot
    111-123
  4. Q4 00:35
    Mavericks turnover
  5. Q4 00:57
    Brandin Podziemski misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  6. Q4 00:57
    Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Miles Kelly, Brandon Williams, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington)
  7. Q4 1:25
    Stephen Curry misses two point jump shot
  8. Q4 1:40
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    109-121
  9. Q4 2:05
    +2
    De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot (Moses Moody assists)
    112-123
  10. Q4 2:40
    Naji Marshall personal foul (De'Anthony Melton draws the foul)
  11. Q4 2:40
    +1
    De'Anthony Melton makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    109-118
  12. Q4 2:40
    Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Upheld)
  13. Q4 2:40
    Mavericks challenge timeout
  14. Q4 2:59
    Stephen Curry misses three point jump shot
  15. Q4 3:03
    Mavericks turnover
  16. Q4 3:27
    +1
    Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    111-123
  17. Q4 3:27
    Warriors personal foul
  18. Q4 3:27
    Cooper Flagg misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  19. Q4 3:50
    Warriors personal foul
  20. Q4 3:50
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    111-123
  21. Q4 4:01
    Brandon Williams defensive rebound
  22. Q4 4:13
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  23. Q4 4:13
    Warriors challenge timeout
  24. Q4 4:13
    Brandon Williams turnover (lost ball)
  25. Q4 4:34
    Warriors offensive rebound
  26. Q4 4:35
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  27. Q4 4:40
    Cooper Flagg personal foul (Moses Moody draws the foul)
  28. Q4 4:50
    +2
    Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
    101-113
  29. Q4 4:50
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  30. Q4 4:58
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  31. Q4 4:59
    Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
  32. Q4 5:32
    Naji Marshall defensive rebound
  33. Q4 5:54
    +2
    Dwight Powell makes two point cutting layup (Naji Marshall assists)
    101-104
  34. Q4 5:54
    Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Max Christie)
  35. Q4 6:10
    +1
    Max Christie makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    101-104
  36. Q4 6:10
    +1
    Max Christie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    101-104
  37. Q4 6:14
    Naji Marshall defensive rebound
  38. Q4 6:32
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  39. Q4 6:55
    Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
  40. Q4 7:07
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  41. Q4 7:09
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    101-102
  42. Q4 7:20
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot
    98-102
  43. Q4 8:02
    Warriors personal foul
  44. Q4 8:02
    Max Christie misses three point jump shot
  45. Q4 8:02
    Buddy Hield turnover (lost ball)
  46. Q4 8:07
    Mavericks turnover
  47. Q4 8:24
    Warriors personal foul
  48. Q4 8:24
    Al Horford turnover (offensive foul)
  49. Q4 8:24
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
  50. Q4 8:26
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot
    101-104
  51. Q4 8:39
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
  52. Q4 8:56
    Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Ryan Nembhard, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Max Christie)
  53. Q4 8:56
    +1
    Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    101-102
  54. Q4 8:56
    Instant replay
  55. Q4 8:56
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
  56. Q4 8:56
    Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
  57. Q4 9:01
    Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
  58. Q4 9:39
    +2
    Buddy Hield makes two point jump shot
    96-99
  59. Q4 9:57
    Max Christie turnover
  60. Q4 10:18
    Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating bank jump shot
  61. Q4 10:27
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  62. Q4 11:34
    +2
    Max Christie makes two point driving reverse layup
    101-102
  63. Q4 11:42
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  64. Q4 11:45
    De'Anthony Melton misses two point jump shot
  65. Q4 11:52
    Mavericks turnover (8-second violation)
  66. Q3 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  67. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  68. Q3 00:01
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  69. Q3 00:03
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  70. Q3 00:33
    P.J. Washington offensive rebound
  71. Q3 00:37
    Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
  72. Q3 00:52
    P.J. Washington shooting foul (De'Anthony Melton draws the foul)
  73. Q3 00:52
    De'Anthony Melton misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  74. Q3 1:43
    Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
  75. Q3 1:44
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    89-84
  76. Q3 1:49
    Stephen Curry defensive rebound
  77. Q3 2:14
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    74-79
  78. Q3 2:19
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  79. Q3 2:21
    Klay Thompson turnover (bad pass)
  80. Q3 2:21
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  81. Q3 2:24
    Naji Marshall turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  82. Q3 2:24
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Buddy Hield)
  83. Q3 2:24
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  84. Q3 2:42
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    74-79
  85. Q3 2:50
    +3
    Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (P.J. Washington assists)
    74-79
  86. Q3 3:19
    +2
    Brandon Williams makes two point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
    74-79
  87. Q3 3:34
    +2
    De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot
    74-79
  88. Q3 4:08
    P.J. Washington defensive rebound
  89. Q3 4:12
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  90. Q3 4:30
    Will Richard personal foul
  91. Q3 4:30
    +1
    Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    74-79
  92. Q3 4:47
    Al Horford personal foul
  93. Q3 4:47
    Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  94. Q3 5:19
    +2
    Max Christie makes two point running layup
    69-72
  95. Q3 5:42
    +3
    Max Christie makes three point jump shot (P.J. Washington assists)
    69-70
  96. Q3 5:42
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  97. Q3 5:44
    Gary Payton II turnover (lost ball) (P.J. Washington steals)
  98. Q3 6:13
    +2
    Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
    69-67
  99. Q3 6:20
    Max Christie offensive rebound
  100. Q3 6:35
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    69-65
  101. Q3 6:44
    Mavericks personal foul
  102. Q3 6:55
    Moses Moody personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
  103. Q3 6:55
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    67-65
  104. Q3 7:07
    +2
    Draymond Green makes two point jump shot
    67-63
  105. Q3 7:22
    +2
    Dwight Powell makes two point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
    67-65
  106. Q3 7:27
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  107. Q3 7:27
    Moses Moody personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
  108. Q3 7:54
    Mavericks personal foul
  109. Q3 7:54
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry)
  110. Q3 8:05
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    63-61
  111. Q3 8:15
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  112. Q3 8:15
    Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Max Christie)
  113. Q3 8:17
    +3
    Moses Moody makes three point jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    63-59
  114. Q3 8:32
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  115. Q3 8:34
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  116. Q3 8:44
    Stephen Curry violation
  117. Q3 9:00
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    60-59
  118. Q3 9:16
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-59
  119. Q3 9:26
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  120. Q3 9:39
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    58-57
  121. Q3 9:42
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  122. Q3 10:09
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    58-55
  123. Q3 10:22
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  124. Q3 10:27
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  125. Q3 10:50
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    56-55
  126. Q3 11:16
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  127. Q3 11:17
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    89-84
  128. Q2 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  129. Q3 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry)
  130. Q3 12:00
    Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Cooper Flagg, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Max Christie)
  131. Q2 00:02
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    50-55
  132. Q2 00:28
    Mavericks turnover
  133. Q2 00:36
    Mavericks personal foul
  134. Q2 00:36
    +1
    Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    49-53
  135. Q2 00:36
    +1
    Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    50-53
  136. Q2 00:36
    Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry)
  137. Q2 00:47
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    48-53
  138. Q2 1:04
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    48-51
  139. Q2 1:28
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
  140. Q2 1:39
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  141. Q2 2:11
    Mavericks violation
  142. Q2 2:20
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  143. Q2 3:04
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  144. Q2 3:04
    Warriors turnover
  145. Q2 3:42
    Al Horford turnover (offensive foul)
  146. Q2 3:52
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    45-41
  147. Q2 3:57
    P.J. Washington defensive rebound
  148. Q2 4:10
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  149. Q2 4:28
    Mavericks personal foul
  150. Q2 4:28
    +1
    Jonathan Kuminga makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    45-39
  151. Q2 4:28
    Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Max Christie)
  152. Q2 4:37
    P.J. Washington defensive rebound
  153. Q2 4:40
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  154. Q2 5:40
    Mavericks defensive rebound
  155. Q2 5:40
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  156. Q2 6:05
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    39-37
  157. Q2 6:05
    Mavericks personal foul
  158. Q2 6:05
    Mavericks personal foul
  159. Q2 6:05
    +1
    Moses Moody makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    40-37
  160. Q2 6:11
    De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
  161. Q2 6:22
    Dwight Powell offensive rebound
  162. Q2 6:36
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    37-37
  163. Q2 6:39
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  164. Q2 7:15
    Warriors personal foul
  165. Q2 7:15
    Cooper Flagg misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  166. Q2 7:15
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  167. Q2 7:15
    Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Ryan Nembhard, Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall)
  168. Q2 7:25
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford)
  169. Q2 7:32
    Warriors turnover
  170. Q2 7:46
    Dwight Powell offensive rebound
  171. Q2 8:16
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  172. Q2 8:23
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  173. Q2 8:33
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    31-33
  174. Q2 8:41
    Klay Thompson defensive rebound
  175. Q2 8:47
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  176. Q2 9:12
    +1
    Draymond Green makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    30-31
  177. Q2 9:12
    +1
    Draymond Green makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    31-31
  178. Q2 9:22
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    29-31
  179. Q2 9:27
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  180. Q2 9:48
    Mavericks personal foul
  181. Q2 9:58
    Warriors personal foul
  182. Q2 10:12
    Gary Payton II offensive rebound
  183. Q2 10:16
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  184. Q2 10:38
    Klay Thompson defensive rebound
  185. Q2 10:41
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  186. Q2 11:11
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot
    29-27
  187. Q2 11:13
    Ryan Nembhard offensive rebound
  188. Q2 11:37
    Mavericks turnover
  189. Q2 11:41
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
  190. Q1 00:00
    Max Christie defensive rebound
  191. Q1 00:00
    Instant replay
  192. Q1 00:00
    Mavericks offensive rebound
  193. Q2 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield)
  194. Q1 00:19
    Buddy Hield defensive rebound
  195. Q1 00:29
    Caleb Martin defensive rebound
  196. Q1 00:49
    +3
    Mavericks makes three point jump shot
    27-24
  197. Q1 1:00
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    27-21
  198. Q1 1:36
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  199. Q1 2:03
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  200. Q1 2:15
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  201. Q1 2:21
    Mavericks turnover
  202. Q1 2:34
    Mavericks personal foul
  203. Q1 2:34
    Mavericks 60 second timeout
  204. Q1 2:34
    Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Klay Thompson, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Brandon Williams, P.J. Washington)
  205. Q1 2:44
    +2
    Mavericks makes two point jump shot
    21-21
  206. Q1 3:04
    Brandon Williams defensive rebound
  207. Q1 3:26
    P.J. Washington offensive rebound
  208. Q1 3:29
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  209. Q1 3:38
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    18-17
  210. Q1 3:48
    Mavericks personal foul
  211. Q1 3:48
    Caleb Martin turnover (offensive foul)
  212. Q1 4:16
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford)
  213. Q1 4:20
    Warriors turnover
  214. Q1 4:22
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  215. Q1 4:34
    Mavericks personal foul
  216. Q1 5:01
    P.J. Washington offensive rebound
  217. Q1 5:04
    Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
  218. Q1 5:04
    Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse, P.J. Washington)
  219. Q1 5:11
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  220. Q1 5:25
    +1
    Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    11-15
  221. Q1 5:25
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Gary Payton II, De'Anthony Melton, Stephen Curry, Al Horford)
  222. Q1 5:25
    Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington)
  223. Q1 5:51
    Mavericks turnover
  224. Q1 6:28
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  225. Q1 6:30
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  226. Q1 7:06
    Mavericks misses two point jump shot
  227. Q1 7:14
    Naji Marshall defensive rebound
  228. Q1 7:17
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  229. Q1 7:46
    Dwight Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  230. Q1 7:46
    +1
    Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    3-7
  231. Q1 7:55
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  232. Q1 8:06
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  233. Q1 8:11
    Mavericks turnover
  234. Q1 8:41
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  235. Q1 8:43
    Mavericks misses three point jump shot
  236. Q1 8:58
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
  237. Q1 9:09
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  238. Q1 9:11
    Caleb Martin misses three point jump shot
  239. Q1 9:49
    +2
    Cooper Flagg makes two point pullup jump shot
    0-6
  240. Q1 10:02
    Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
  241. Q1 10:25
    Draymond Green turnover (bad pass) (Max Christie steals)
  242. Q1 10:33
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  243. Q1 10:47
    Stephen Curry misses two point pullup jump shot
  244. Q1 10:57
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  245. Q1 10:59
    Stephen Curry shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
  246. Q1 11:04
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  247. Q1 11:11
    Cooper Flagg misses three point pullup jump shot
  248. Q1 11:19
    Dwight Powell defensive rebound
  249. Q1 11:39
    Max Christie misses three point pullup jump shot
  250. Q1 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry)
  251. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Warriors
PosPlayerPts
Mavericks
PosPlayerPts

Warriors vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Warriors vs. Mavericks
  • Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: American Airlines Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Warriors favored at -6.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 235
  • Moneyline Odds: Warriors -245, Mavericks +210

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Warriors: 70%
  • Mavericks: 30%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Warriors 119-113 Mavericks.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Warriors a win probability of 70%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 30%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Warriors vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.