Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State prediction: Why Arkansas State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [3/5/2026]

Arkansas State will take on Georgia Southern in men's college basketball action at Pensacola Bay Center on Thursday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Arkansas State as the most likely winner of the Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NCAA basketball game between Georgia Southern and Arkansas State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Arkansas State a 76% chance of defeating Georgia Southern. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 84-76.

According to our model, Arkansas State (-6.5) has a 60% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 165.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.

Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Georgia Southern	Arkansas State
Spread	+6.5 (-102)	-6.5 (-120)
Moneyline	+260	-310
Total	o165.5 (-115)	u165.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Arkansas State -6.5	-120
Moneyline	Arkansas State	-310
Total	Under 165.5	-105

According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Arkansas State -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's men's college basketball matchup between Arkansas State and Georgia Southern at Pensacola Bay Center is scheduled to begin at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State
• Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
• Venue: Pensacola Bay Center

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Conclusion

We predict Arkansas State, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Georgia Southern on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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