FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Top five HR hitters in the Dimers App today, April 14

Home run betting gets a boost today, April 14, as FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo is live on Tuesdays during the 2026 MLB season, with this year's version offering a choice between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen in the Dimers App.

Speaking of the Dimers App, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up in the app today and get a three-day free trial of Dimers Pro!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – April 14, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate.

Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup, with all five players clearing at least a 20% probability.

1. Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Game: Angels vs. Yankees

Dimers Probability: 23.5%

FanDuel Odds: +172

Leading our HR projections on Dinger Tuesday is usual suspect, Aaron Judge at a 23.5% probability from the Dimers model.

The reigning AL MVP is starting to heat up after a few quiet weeks by his usual standards at the plate to begin the season.

He's got 6 HR, three over his past two games and will face Angels starter Reid Detmers, a lefthanded fastball/slider pitcher who's been beat up on by righties in his career.

Though small sample sizes, Judge's struggles with contact have come against righties, with a .933 SLG and 1.308 OPS vs. LHP compared to .422 and .743. He has 3 HR against each side.

Weather looks great in the mid-70s, putting Judge in a great spot for his third straight game with a homer.

2. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Game: Cubs vs. Phillies

Dimers Probability: 22.1%

FanDuel Odds: +194

Next up is the big lefty bat of the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber, with a 22.1% Dimers probability to hit a home run.

Like Judge, Schwarbs is coming off a 2-HR game and is priced under +200, so his home run prop comes with a heavy tax with our model's fair odds closer to +350.

He's up to 6 dingers on the year so far, but notably they have all come off right-handed pitchers, and he's slugging just .190 in 21 AB so far this year against lefties. About a quarter of his home runs have come against lefties over his past 5 seasons, so it's likely to balance out over time.

But his first at-bat tonight will be against lefty Riley Martin, who will likely serve as an opener before turning the ball to a bulk pitcher, possibly Colin Rea, who hasn't pitched since Thursday. Rea is a righty who's given up 20+ HR in each of his past three seasons, with 14+ to lefthanded batters in each.

Our top five HR probabilities today from the Dimers App.

3. Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)

Game: Mets vs. Dodgers

Dimers Probability: 21.9%

FanDuel Odds: +250

The Dodgers two-way superstar is also heating up after a quiet start, hitting five home runs since April 3, two in his past three games.

Shohei Ohtani is hitting very similarly against both lefties and righties, with his only real struggles coming against the 4-seam fastball, a common pitch he normally crushes, so that shouldn't last long.

The Dimers model gives Ohtani a 21.9% probability to go yard tonight for fair odds of +355, so he's not an edge at his regular odds, but the 50% boost would take him to +375 for some slight value.

Mets starter Nolan MacLean has given up just 1 HR with a 0.83 WHIP through 16.2 innings so far, which is excellent, but he does utilize the sinker frequently vs lefthanded batters, which is a pitch Ohtani historically dominates, and is hitting well early this year.

The matchup won't be easy, as the Mets also boast a Top 5 bullpen, but Ohtani is known to rise to the occasion.

4. Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

Game: Rockies vs. Astros

Dimers Probability: 21.9%

FanDuel Odds: +240

Normally, a team would be excited to face the Colorado Rockies for their second series in little over a week. But, the Houston Astros are in the midst of an 8-game losing streak, including a sweep by the Rockies.

They'll continue to lean on their best bat, Yordan Alvarez, who gets a 21.9% probability to hit his 7th HR of the year tonight.

Alvarez has some of the best all-around hitting metrics in baseball right now, topped off with a 100th percentile xSLG.

The Rockies starter is TBD as of publishing, but could be Michael Lorenzen based on the latest rotation.

Simply put, Lorenzen has never been particularly good, allowing a career-high 25 home runs last year. He's given up as many hits as any pitcher in the ML so far this season with 3 HR, all against lefties like Alvarez.

However, with the starter TBD, this matchup could change.

5. Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)

Game: Angels vs. Yankees

Dimers Probability: 21.4%

FanDuel Odds: +320

Rounding out the Top 5 is a player from the only team to appear twice, Giancarlo Stanton of the Yankees.

Stanton has 1 HR so far this season but is hitting the ball very well and has been the victim of some bad luck, with two balls he's crushed in Yankee Stadium that hit about a foot below the top of the wall.

With a 21.4% probability tonight, Stanton gets the same good matchup with Reid Detmers, and he has traditionally hit the lefty's top two pitches (4-seam/slider) among his best.

Stanton is the closest to fair odds at +320 on FanDuel and a fair Dimers price of +370, meaning the 50% profit boost would make him a great edge play at +480.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.