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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1000 pick for Dinger Tuesday [4/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, April 14, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, built to highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 14, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1000.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 22.7% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 21.8% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 21.6% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 21.6% |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | 20.6% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 18.9% |
| Christian Walker (Astros) | 18.2% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.1% |
| Ronald Acuna (Braves) | 18.1% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 17.7% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.7% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (21.8%) and Yordan Alvarez (21.6%).
Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [4/14/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.
Jac Caglianone (Royals) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.9%
- Odds: +1000
- Edge: 3.8%
- Game: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Framber Valdez
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Kansas City slugger Jac Caglianone rates as a value play at +1000 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.8% edge.
Set to face Framber Valdez in tonight's Royals-Tigers matchup, the data supports Caglianone as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 14, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jac Caglianone who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.8% edge at +1000 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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