Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens prediction, odds, picks for Australian Open 2026

Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens will meet in the fourth round of the Australian Open 2026 on Monday.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Elena Rybakina as the most likely winner of the Rybakina vs. Mertens match.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Rybakina vs. Mertens prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Rybakina-Mertens women's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Rybakina an 81% chance of defeating Mertens in the Australian Open 2026.

Additionally, Rybakina has a 77% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Mertens (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rybakina vs. Mertens picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

Rybakina vs. Mertens updates and essential details

The Australian Open 2026 match between Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens is scheduled to start on Monday at 12:15 AM ET.

• Who: Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens
• Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:15 AM ET/9:15PM PT
• Tournament: Australian Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Elena Rybakina, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat Elise Mertens at the Australian Open 2026.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rybakina vs. Mertens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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