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Read Article Alex de Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Cinch Championships 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get de Minaur vs Shapovalov predictions for ATP Cinch Championships.
Alex de Minaur will take on Denis Shapovalov in the round of 16 at the ATP London event on Wednesday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Alex de Minaur as the most likely winner of the de Minaur vs. Shapovalov match.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
de Minaur vs. Shapovalov prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's de Minaur-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives de Minaur a 79% chance of defeating Shapovalov at the ATP Cinch Championships tournament.
Additionally, de Minaur has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the +4.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the **over/under of 21.5 games also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alex de Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | de Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -375 | +300 |
| First Set | -303 | +240 |
| Game Spread | -4.5 (+110) | +4.5 (-144) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-122) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
de Minaur vs. Shapovalov picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | de Minaur | -375 |
| First Set | Shapovalov | -110 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
de Minaur vs. Shapovalov updates and essential details
The ATP Cinch Championships match between Alex de Minaur and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 7:40 AM ET.
- Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov
- Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:40 AM ET/4:40AM PT
- Tournament: ATP London, Great Britain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 16
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the ATP Cinch Championships tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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