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Lions vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win SNF Week 6, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs will square off with the Detroit Lions in NFL Week 6 action at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 8:20PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Lions-Chiefs game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Chiefs with a win probability of 59%, while the Lions have 41%."
This gameday Lions vs. Chiefs betting preview builds on my Lions vs. Chiefs prediction that was posted earlier in the week.
For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lions vs. Chiefs predictions page.
Lions vs. Chiefs predictions
Since our Lions-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Lions and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Chiefs a 59% chance of defeating the Lions in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 27-24.
According to our model, the Chiefs (-2) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 51.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.
Lions vs. Chiefs odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2 (-110) | -2 (-120) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -142 |
| Total | o51.5 (-105) | u51.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Lions vs. Chiefs picks and best bets
Our model's biggest edge in today's Lions vs. Chiefs matchup is on the over/under.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Lions vs. Chiefs TD scorers
Who will score the first touchdown in Lions vs. Chiefs?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 6, Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score the first TD in Lions vs. Chiefs.
Our projections give Gibbs a 12.2% chance of scoring the first TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Lions running back is a 58.3% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.
First touchdown scorer predictions
Detroit Lions
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 12.2% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 9.1% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 8.5% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 8.0% |
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 7.5% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 6.3% |
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Detroit Lions
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 58.3% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 47.9% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 45.7% |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy (WR) | 37.3% |
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 35.4% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 30.7% |
Lions vs Chiefs player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Chiefs. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.
Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.
Lions vs. Chiefs quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.
Lions rushing
Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Jared Goff are projected to be the leading rushers for the Lions.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB |
| David Montgomery | RB |
| Jared Goff | QB |
Chiefs rushing
Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are expected to lead the Chiefs in rushing yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB |
| Kareem Hunt | RB |
Lions receiving
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Isaac TeSlaa are projected to top the receiving yards for the Lions.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR |
| Jameson Williams | WR |
| Sam LaPorta | TE |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR |
Chiefs receiving
Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster are projected to lead the Chiefs in receiving yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | WR |
| Travis Kelce | TE |
| Hollywood Brown | WR |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR |
Lions vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 6 action between the Chiefs and Lions at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:20PM ET.
- Who: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
- Time: 8:20PM ET/5:20PM PT
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Dimers' full preview of this week's Lions vs. Chiefs matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Lions vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Chiefs, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Week 6 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lions vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NFL
Keep up with the latest NFL betting news and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds provide the most up-to-date projections for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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