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Nuggets vs. Warriors prediction: Denver favored to win Sunday's NBA game [2/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Golden State Warriors will square off with the favored Denver Nuggets in NBA action at Chase Center on Sunday, starting at 3:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature players like Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton and Moses Moody, while the Nuggets will look to Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Nuggets and Warriors 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Nuggets a 71% chance of beating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 117-110.
According to our model, the Warriors (+6.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 228.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Nuggets vs. Warriors odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-102) | +6.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | -238 | +220 |
| Total | o228.5 (-105) | u228.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors +6.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets | -238 |
| Total | Over 228.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors +6.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nuggets vs. Warriors player props
NBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Denver vs. Golden State matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 27 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists, while Brandin Podziemski is projected to have 14 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 27 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 66 |
| Jamal Murray | 25 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 48 |
| Cameron Johnson | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Christian Braun | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Tim Hardaway | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Podziemski | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| D. Melton | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Moses Moody | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Gui Santos | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Pat Spencer | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
Nuggets vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Warriors and Nuggets at Chase Center is scheduled to start at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors on Sunday, with Nikola Jokic projected for a game-high 66 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Warriors insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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