Broncos vs. Commanders prediction: Why Denver is favored to win SNF Week 13, 2025

The Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos are scheduled to meet in Week 13 of the NFL season at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 8:20PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Broncos vs. Commanders game.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Broncos vs. Commanders prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Broncos-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Broncos and Commanders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Broncos a 66% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 13 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 24-20.

According to our model, the Commanders (+6.5) have a 61% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 56% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 13 straight up picks.

Broncos vs. Commanders odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Broncos	Commanders
Spread	-6.5 (-105)	+6.5 (-115)
Moneyline	-295	+245
Total	o43.5 (-105)	u43.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Broncos vs. Commanders picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +6.5	-115
Moneyline	Commanders	+245
Total	Over 43.5	-105

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +6.5 at the spread.

Broncos vs. Commanders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Broncos vs. Commanders?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 13, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. Commanders.

Our projections give Harvey a 42.8% chance of scoring a TD at Northwest Stadium, while the running back is a 10.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

Player	Anytime TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	42.8%
Troy Franklin (WR)	34.9%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	34.0%
Evan Engram (TE)	22.3%
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)	22.1%

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	33.5%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	30.0%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	28.1%
Zach Ertz (TE)	25.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	20.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

Player	First TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	10.5%
Troy Franklin (WR)	8.1%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	7.8%
Evan Engram (TE)	4.8%
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)	4.7%

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	7.5%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	6.5%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	6.0%
Zach Ertz (TE)	5.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	4.2%

Broncos vs Commanders player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Broncos and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 13 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Bo Nix is projected for 237 passing yards. The Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 205 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Bo Nix (DEN)	237
Marcus Mariota (WAS)	205

Broncos rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
RJ Harvey	56
Jaleel McLaughlin	33
Bo Nix	21

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Chris Rodriguez	43
Marcus Mariota	31
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	27

Broncos receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Troy Franklin	56
Courtland Sutton	55
Pat Bryant	29
Evan Engram	29
Marvin Mims	21

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Deebo Samuel	45
Terry McLaurin	44
Zach Ertz	38
Treylon Burks	19
Jaylin Lane	16

Broncos vs. Commanders game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 13 matchup between the Commanders and Broncos at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:20PM ET.

• Who: Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 8:20PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: Northwest Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Broncos, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 13 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Broncos vs. Commanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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