Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Saturday's NBA matchup [1/31/2026]

The Houston Rockets will square off with the Dallas Mavericks in NBA action at Toyota Center on Saturday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Rockets game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Mavericks will be led by Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Mavs vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 78% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 115-105.

According to our model, the Mavericks (+10.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 222.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Mavericks vs. Rockets odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mavericks vs. Rockets picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our best NBA bets for Saturday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +10.5 at the spread.

Mavericks vs. Rockets player props

NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Saturday's Mavericks vs. Rockets game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.

Cooper Flagg is expected to lead the Mavericks with 20 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 27 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Mavericks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:

Rockets prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:

Mavs vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Rockets and Mavericks at Toyota Center is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
• Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
• Venue: Toyota Center

Conclusion

We predict the Rockets, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Saturday, with Alperen Sengun projected for a game-high 49 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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