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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, January 31, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/31.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, January 31, 2026—are live with the 76ers' Joel Embiid projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Embiid, Anthony Edwards and Pascal Siakam lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 31, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 16.1% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.5% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.4% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 14.8% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 14.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.1% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 13.3% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 13.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.9% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 12.4% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 12.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.3% |
| Jock Landale | Grizzlies | 12.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 31, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 5.3% | +950 | 14.8% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 3.6% | +1300 | 10.7% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.4% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Jock Landale | Grizzlies | 0.4% | +750 | 12.1% |
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 0.3% | +1000 | 9.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/31.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, January 31, 2026, Joel Embiid, Anthony Edwards and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Ayo Dosunmu shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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